On reviewing daily charts since Nov. 20, 2025, I observed that an uptrend began after a low of $48.057. This surge reached approximately 152.72% over 70 days at a 65-degree angle, peaking at $121.903 on Jan. 29, 2026. The subsequent decline appeared much steeper than the prior rise.
Undoubtedly, silver futures experienced the biggest single-day fall of approximately 37.54% on the very next day, followed by one more fall of approximately 19%. If we check this decline in three trading sessions from the tested peak, it comes to approximately 41.87% in three trading sessions.
I observed that despite raising noises in the markets about the surging industrial demand for silver, this steep fall overlooked all the expectations that favor the safe-haven potential of silver since the beginning of an uptrend in Nov.20, 2025.
I observed that despite a strong reversal, silver futures faced significant selling pressure even after a reversal of mere 23.83% in next three days from the tested lows at $71.187, and once again a sell off was there which pushed the silver futures to test fresh lows at $63.999 on Feb.6, 2026 when the diplomats of the U.S. and Iran met in Oman to sort out their deal.
This second fall by silver futures found a breakdown even below the significant support at the 20 EMA ($75.711), but found a reversal just above the 100 EMA ($65).
Since then, despite attempting some upward moves, silver futures could hardly test a peak at $86, followed by selling sprees, which pushed the futures to find support at the 50 EMA.
On Wednesday, silver futures, after opening the day at $76.300, tested the day’s high at $76.397 and the day’s low at $74.430, are trading at $74.428, just below the significant support at the 50 EMA ($75.706) when the representatives of the U.S. and Iran are about to meet in Geneva to negotiate a nuclear deal.
I observed that the disagreement erupted between the Trump administration and the Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, who wants the U.S. to make the deal’s conditions tougher, while U.S. President Donald Trump wants to avoid military action on Iran if this issue is resolved diplomatically.
Technically, if the silver futures make a sustainable move below the immediate support at $74.575, the next target at the 100 EMA ($64.998) could be tested today. While a success on the Iran issue is achieved without any military threat, silver futures could find a breakdown below the 100 EMA to test the next support at the 200 EMA ($51.738) this week.
Disclaimer: Readers are requested to take any position in silver at their own risk, as this analysis is only based on observations.
