Since the beginning of Trump 2.0, I have evaluated and futures on various time charts. Geopolitical issues began to emerge soon after U.S. President Donald Trump imposed trade tariffs. This led to a surge in precious metals, as they were seen as potential safe havens.
I observed that when gold and silver futures traded with normal momentum, no research house set elevated targets. They followed panic buying by global central banks to counter the impact of trade tariff disputes.
Once the precious metals reached their initial peak in October 2025, many voices emerged, announcing elevated targets for gold and silver.
Undoubtedly, both gold and silver hit their peaks in October despite a delay in economic data due to a 43-day-long government shutdown in the U.S., as well as this time, while the U.S. has been going through a partial government shutdown since last Saturday.
Now, you can feel the absence of such voices to promote elevated price targets for gold and silver as both the precious metals have gone through sudden jolts in October, 2025 and January 2026 when a created hype to promote an agenda of creating panic on geopolitical issues to boost the geopolitical premium to gold and silver, suddenly a selling spree starts while such panic touches a peak level.
Now, a surge in peacekeeping efforts by the US and other countries like Oman to resolve the geopolitical concerns with a diplomatic breakthrough is visible as Iran and the U.S. reached an understanding on the main “guiding principles” of talks, raising hopes of a diplomatic breakthrough. Meanwhile, US-brokered peace talks between Russian and Ukrainian negotiators ended in Geneva without a breakthrough.
I find that as many ‘peace’ discussions taking place all of a sudden, with more active role in them by the U.S., success will be there in the next few months, which can divert the momentum from bullish to bearish while the minutes of the Fed’s January meeting showed that almost all participants of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) supported the decision to hold interest rates steady.
However, the minutes also hinted that several participants were ready to consider rate hikes in the future if inflation remained above the central bank’s target of 2%.
I observed that the rate hike by the Bank of Japan has motivated other central banks to adopt this principle to avoid sticky inflation and avoid adding more and more gold for a while, since the elevated prices of gold have potentially increased inflationary pressure on their currencies.
In conclusion, increased diplomatic efforts to resolve geopolitical issues appear to be reducing the safe-haven demand for gold, leading to a decline in its geopolitical premium.
Undoubtedly, a steep fall of approximately 21.82% within 4 days by the gold futures, while the silver futures have experienced a fall of approximately 47.63% within 8 days in February 2026, suggesting that the ’geopolitical premium’ has faded this month.
Disclaimer: Readers are advised to take any position in gold and silver at their own risk, as this analysis is based only on observations.
