In evaluating the weekly movements of since the uptrend began on October 2, 2023, after testing lows at $1,817.44, I observed that the rally remained sustainable and was primarily driven by demand and supply dynamics until it paused for the first time on November 11, 2024.
After testing the day’s low on Nov.11, 2024, gold futures, after sustaining for next six weeks, picked up an uptrend as elections were held in the United States on Nov.5, 2024, when the former Republican President Donald Trump, seeking a non-consecutive second term, defeated the incumbent Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris, followed by another wave of uptrend.
Gold Futures initiated this uptrend amid surging hopes and anxiety among global central banks due to expected potential upheavals following Trump’s inauguration as the next president on January 20, 2025.
Gold futures experienced surging indecisiveness, and continued to remain in uptrend till they hit a high at $3,510 on Apr.21, 2025, followed by a sell off during the next few weeks, gold futures experienced the next wave of buying when the gold futures tested a low at$3,123.76 on May 12, 2025, before resuming the uptrend, after repeated attempts to find a breakout above the significant resistance at the tested highs on May 12, 2025.
The next wave of rally by the gold futures was quite steep, elevated at a 67-degree angle, and tested the first peak on Oct.20, 2025, at $4,398.64, experienced a sharp slide that continued up to Oct.28, 2025, when the futures tested a low at $3,888 before experiencing the next wave of uptrend.
Undoubtedly, these waves of continuity of an uptrend, based on profusely buying spree by the global central banks, lead by the central bank of China and regular interest rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve, pushed the gold futures to test a fresh recode peak on Dec.29, 2025 at $4,573, followed by a heavy sell off that continued during the last week of December 2025.
The next wave of this rally started on January 2, 2026, from the tested lows at $4,284.74, and reached a fresh record peak on January 29, 2026, at $5,647. However, it experienced a steep slide, pushing the gold futures to a low of $4,430 on January 2, 2026.
Undoubtedly, gold futures experience this uptrend with an angle of elevation of 83 degrees from the tested lows on Jan.2, 2026, followed by a selling spree, indicating a higher instance of uncertainty about the real valuations of a non-yield asset, which gained the overly stretched valuation amid surge in panic buying spree while the supportive arguments were merely geopolitical concerns around the world.
This week, gold futures have remained subdued, revealing that even significant geopolitical risks have not catalyzed a sustained rally. This is occurring despite heightened tensions between the U.S. and Iran. I have detailed the implications of current developments in my previous analysis Gold and Silver Shed Geopolitical Premium – Is a Comeback Ahead? (https://www.investing.com/analysis/gold-and-silver-shed-geopolitical-premium–is-a-comeback-ahead-200675332).
Now, the focus shifts to map the next directional moves with expected resistance and support levels. I have explained my observations on the long voyage experienced by gold futures before testing the recent record peak in January 2026. Gold futures experienced many waves of surge with different angles of elevation.
I anticipate that the gold futures will remain silent to react with heightened anxiety to surge with more elevated moves despite extremely heightened geopolitical concerns, indicates that as the gold has shed its geopolitical premium, and if it a true, steep slide is likely to start if the surging war-like situation calm down this weekend.
In that case, the angle of elevation, experienced by the gold futures, will turn in angle of depression, and the slide will reflect the mirror image of the uptrend seen since April 21, 2025, from the tested lows at $3,510.
In summary, the current scenario appears likely to calm, as broad awareness exists regarding the potentially devastating consequences of large-scale conflict in a world equipped with advanced weaponry.
Let’s pray for peace all around to be sustained permanently, while the U.S. President wishes to extend his wish to resolve global geopolitical issues through the “Board of Peace”.
Disclaimer: Readers are advised to take any position in gold at their own risk, as this analysis is based only on observations.
