Tariff drama has revived safe-haven flows, lifting bullion through resistance and resetting the tactical landscape for traders.
- Breakout above $5100 shifts near term bias back to bullish
- Momentum is strong, but short-term stretch signals are flashing
- $5100 now key pivot for continuation vs failure
US Dollar Pressure Returns
Just as we saw immediately after the Liberation Day tariff rate announcement in early April last year, markets are again showing pressure on the alongside renewed demand for safe havens.
As a safe haven predominantly priced in USD, has rallied following the SCOTUS ruling that Trump’s reciprocal tariffs were illegal. Trump’s response, announcing 15% global levies to be introduced on Tuesday under Section 122, grants him 150 days to formulate a sustainable plan.
That window matters. A potentially sizeable government revenue gap risks amplifying concerns surrounding the US fiscal outlook and, by extension, the future value of the dollar.
Breakout Resets Technical Picture
Source: TradingView
On the charts, gold’s breakout above $5100 looks significant. The move suggests it may be embarking on a fresh leg higher following a prolonged consolidation phase after the bloodbath in late January and early February, when speculative long positioning was forced to unwind as prices cascaded lower.
The breakout also provides traders with a clean level to work with when constructing bullish setups, offering a logical reference point for protection on fresh longs.
However, entry looms as critical despite the bullish signal. Gold is now trading above its upper Bollinger Band on the 4H timeframe, hinting that the move may be getting somewhat stretched. RSI (14) has also crept back into overbought territory, reinforcing the more cautious near-term message.
Yes, RSI (14) continues to trend higher, indicating upside momentum is building, a message confirmed by MACD which has crossed the signal line before flipping into positive territory. Even so, the preference would be to see a pullback towards, or to, $5100 before considering entry.
It may not happen, but that remains the more appealing scenario. A retest would help improve risk-reward dynamics while revealing whether bulls are willing to defend the breakout level.
There are relatively few clear levels overhead given the speed of the earlier unwind. Key areas to monitor include the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the January to February high low move at $5341, along with $5450 where an attempted bounce following the initial gold sell off was met with ferocious selling on January 30.
A sustained break above that zone would likely embolden bulls, opening the door to a retest of the record high at $5598 and potential resumption of the broader bullish trend.
Conversely, a reversal back beneath $5100 that holds would invalidate the bullish bias, pointing to the risk of renewed downside and a possible retest of the February lows.
