I evaluated movements using daily charts to examine post-rally trends on February 24, 2025, when gold futures, after forming a second post-rally structure, fell approximately 21.64% from the tested peak at $5,630 on Jan. 29, 2026, amid surging hopes of easing tensions between the U.S. and Iran.
Now, gold futures are trying to hold steady as U.S. and Iranian diplomats prepare to meet in Geneva for a final diplomatic attempt to resolve the Iran nuclear issue.
My observations of the renewed record rallies since October 20, 2025, experienced by gold futures in 2025–26, appear quite similar in terms of the prevailing uptrend.
Although the reasons for sudden sell-offs may differ, the reason this time could be different if the diplomatic deal remains successful on Feb. 26, 2026, in Geneva at 9:30 A.M. (Geneva time).
If gold breaks below the pivotal point at $5,031.37 within the next 3 days, I will consider this confirmation of the directional trend.
On Feb. 25, gold futures traded below the immediate resistance at $5,206.67. After opening the day at $5,165.56, they tested the day’s low at $5,155.30 and the day’s high at $5,229.90 while remaining inside a “Decisive Zone” for volatile moves, ahead of the outcome of the U.S.–Iran meeting on Feb. 26, 2026.
Finally, the dust will likely settle by Mar. 9, before the Fed’s meeting on March 17–18, 2026.
The current situation looks grim. Just minutes ago, United States President Donald Trump told Congress that he would prefer to resolve differences with Tehran through diplomacy, while also laying out his case for potential attacks on Iran, which he claimed was seeking to develop missiles capable of striking the U.S. mainland.
His comments drew an angry response from the Iranian government on Wednesday, the day before the two sides are due to resume indirect talks in Geneva.
Iran’s negotiating delegation, led by Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, has left Tehran and is headed to the Swiss city, state media reported on Wednesday.
During his annual State of the Union address to a joint session of the Senate and House of Representatives on Tuesday, Trump struck a belligerent tone against Iran, accusing it of working to rebuild its nuclear program, which was hit by U.S. strikes last year.
Trump has repeatedly said those sites were obliterated, a claim experts have disputed.
“We wiped it out, and they want to start all over again. And they’re at this moment again pursuing their sinister ambitions,” Trump said, as he raised the subject of potential military action against Iran about 90 minutes into his record-length speech.
“We are in negotiations with them. They want to make a deal, but we haven’t heard those secret words: ‘We will never have a nuclear weapon.’”
Trump said his “preference” was “to solve this problem through diplomacy, but one thing is certain: I will never allow the world’s number one sponsor of terror, which they are by far, to have a nuclear weapon.”
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Disclaimer: Readers are advised to take any position in gold at their own risk, as this analysis is based only on observations.
