Oil traders say a dip before a flip on early headlines that flashed “significant progress” in the latest round of U.S.-Iran nuclear talks in Geneva.
Yet progress does not mean a deal and the market is rallying on the belief that we probably are not going to get one. We did get plenty of upbeat spin from the Iranian side and the Omani mediator what may be denial which is one of the phases of grief or delusion or maybe wishful thinking. Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi proclaimed that the talks were “the most intense so far” and claiming “very good progress.” He said the sides “were able to define the main elements of a possible deal” and discussed them “very seriously” on both the nuclear and sanctions fronts. He even hinted they’ve “entered into the elements of an agreement” and that technical talks kick off next in Vienna with the IAEA.
Omani Foreign Minister Badr Al Busaidi, the go-between, echoed the optimism: “We have finished the day after significant progress in the negotiation between the United States and Iran.” He confirmed more technical-level discussions in Vienna next week.
Sounds promising, right? Not so fast. The Wall Street Journal reported it this way “in talks that went into the evening, U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner said Iran must destroy its three main nuclear sites—at Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan—and deliver all of its remaining enriched uranium to the U.S., officials said. They also said any nuclear deal must last forever—not sunset the way restrictions rolled off over time under a nuclear pact negotiated under the Obama administration that Republicans have long said was too weak. President Trump pulled out of that deal, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, in his first term, reimposing strict sanctions on Iran.
Iran rejected the idea of transferring uranium stockpiles abroad. It also has objected to ending enrichment, dismantling its nuclear facilities and permanent restrictions on its program, Iranian state media and people familiar with the talks said.”
So in other words, instead of progress, we more than likely have hit a roadblock unless Iran really will end their nuclear ambitions. And despite talk of progress we go back to the classic Tehran playbook—talk up “progress” after every round to buy time, ease pressure, and keep the centrifuges spinning.
No breakthrough, no concrete concessions, no sign Iran will ever budge on core U.S. demands like dismantling key facilities (Fordow, Natanz, Esfahan), shipping out highly enriched uranium, or accepting zero enrichment (or even very low levels beyond medical isotopes).
Reports indicate Iran still insists on continuing enrichment, rejects sending material abroad, and wants full sanctions relief—positions that clash head-on with the Trump administration’s hard line.
U.S. sources described the talks as “positive” but offered no specifics to back up the “significant” label, and maybe the only positive thing coming out of these talks is realizing that the Iranian regime will never give up on its nuclear ambitions and its sponsorship of terror.
Now we have a decision whether the U.S. wants to put an end to this song and dance or risk that Iran gets nuclear weapons and missiles to fulfill their vision of ‘Death to America’ and wiping Israel off the face of the earth and their support for terror groups like HAMAS and the Houthi Rebels. . Meanwhile, the massive U.S. military buildup in the region continues, and Trump’s warnings of “bad things” if no deal materializes raises the stakes and today the price of oil as traders hunker down or up for the weekend.
Today we’re going to be watching the wire for headlines there are different reports that are coming across that the, the U.S. State Department authorized the voluntary departure (authorized departure) of non-emergency U.S. government personnel and their eligible family members from the U.S. Embassy in Israel (Mission Israel), citing “safety risks.” This is not a full mandatory evacuation but allows and encourages non-essential staff to leave if they choose.
U.S. Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee sent an email to embassy staff urging those who want to depart to do so immediately (“should do so TODAY”), while emphasizing there is “no need to panic.” Staff were advised to secure any available flight out of Israel and then head to Washington, D.C.
The U.S. Embassy in Jerusalem updated its public travel advisory accordingly, noting that persons may wish to consider leaving Israel while commercial flights are still available. It also warns of potential further restrictions on travel to certain areas (e.g., parts of Israel, the Old City of Jerusalem, and the West Bank) without notice due to security incidents.
These warnings obviously raised the stakes, and we’re starting to see risk-on and risk-aversion play out in the markets. We’ve seen a bit of flight to quality, pushing up U.S. Treasury bonds and notes, and we’ve seen the gold market creep up modestly. But it’s hard to tell whether that’s just because we’re in a raging bull market with a lot of volatility, or if it’s because there’s concern about the attack. As I said before, maybe the best way to protect yourself is to have options on both sides of the equation. The potential for a major price spike is real, but so is the potential for a major correction. Once the market closes electronically today at 4:00 PM Central Time, it’ll be a long weekend with the risk of something happening or not happening and no ability to adjust your position until Sunday night. It’s probably best to hedge with options—put some calls out of the money.
Also + is expected to resume output hikes, starting with a modest increase of 137,000 barrels a day, after deciding to keep output steady in the first quarter.
If anyone is still losing sleep over ‘peak Oil Production” which was all the rage at the start of the new millennium rest easy. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak can assure you that Russia has sufficient oil reserves to last for the next 62 years at current production and consumption rates. This figure is based on Russia’s geological recoverable reserves, estimated at around 31 billion tons of oil. Noy if you are worried about so called ‘Peak Demand” well I can’t help you. I am not saying you are too far gone just I can’t help you.
Natural gas prices are falling because of spring fever that promises more warm weather ahead. Fox Weather says that their March weather outlook include Warmer temperatures, and severe storm threats on the horizon as we spring into next month, Fox Weather says that “Intrusions of warmer air preview a hint of summer and an uptick in severe storms.!~Summer! I remember Summer!
And even as we have had the coldest weather in years production is keeping us flush, John Kemp at John Kemp Energy, U.S. gas inventories declined more slowly than usual in mid-February, eliminating much of the previous storage deficit and pushing futures below $3 per million BTU. Over ten days ending February 20, stocks dropped by 114 billion cubic feet—far less than the typical seasonal draw of 202 bcf—leaving inventories only 40 bcf below the ten-year average, significantly reducing the deficit.
Yet Fox Weather still warns of another winter storm before we can get the shorts out as they warn that Just one week after a historic blizzard pummeled New England and other parts of the Interstate 95 corridor, yet another potential multi-day winter storm could impact millions across 25 states in the Northeast, as well as the Midwest beginning Sunday.
