An analysis of on daily charts reveals increasing uncertainty regarding the potential escalation or de-escalation of conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran. This period of limited information may prompt significant price movement in either direction. The ongoing 11-day conflict has evolved into an issue of national prestige.
US President Trump claims the U.S. is winning this war and urges Iran to surrender unconditionally. Meanwhile, Iran has destroyed most U.S. consulates and military bases in the Middle East and continues to fire missiles at Israel.
Undoubtedly, Trump wants to end this war since the disruption of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran resulted in serious threats to the global economy due to a steep surge in WTI Crude oil price the day before yesterday, and fell yesterday after President Trump’s statement that the end of the war is near.
I find that he is not wrong to say this, as he needs to build public opinion in his favor before the November election in the U.S., given that the war in Iran is the biggest gamble for him at this time.
Undoubtedly, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is also facing the same situation before the election in October this year.
Netanyahu is hoping to harness Trump as he fights for political survival. Under Israeli law, elections must be held by October 27. And after years of war, grief, and grinding internal division, Netanyahu enters the campaign in a precarious position. Polls consistently show his coalition short of the 61 Knesset seats needed to form a governing majority.
Among large swaths of the Israeli public – particularly families of Oct.7 victims and the hundreds of thousands who poured into the streets to protest his proposed judicial overhaul – he remains the subject of searing anger that no military has managed to lift.
On the other hand, Aljazeera reports that Tehran say, US, Israel have hit nearly 10,000 civilian sites (https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/3/11/iran-war-live-tehran-says-us-israel-hit-nearly-10000-civilian-sites) while Foad Izadi, a professor at the University of Tehran, says the closure of the Strait of Hormuz – through which roughly 20 percent of the world’s oil cargo passes – could be one of Iran’s most powerful weapons in the war.
He dismissed concerns that closing the strait could harm Iran’s global standing, saying: ”Iran is not looking for popularity.”
Technical Formations
In a daily chart, gold futures seems to have lost war premium as the war between the U.S., Israel with Iran has turned a regular affair as fought without valid reasons while ultimately the loss of civilians, capped the upside after experiencing a steep fall on Jan.29, 2026, which pushed the gold futures to test the lows at $4,427.69 within three trading sessions when the news on diplomatic resolution on Iran appeared.
I find that the gold bulls look reluctant to enter above the immediate resistance at $5,252 amid surging hopes on de-escalation between the U.S. and Iran as the U.S. President’s main condition to stop on nuclear enrichment program has already been accepted by Iran while the other conditions, were the brain-child of Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, who has pushed his country in a difficult situation before the election.
I anticipate that the currently developing geopolitical conditions look evident enough for an early positive outcome on the war front, as both the leader, U.S. President Donald Trump, and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu would prefer to end this in a real manner to defend their political position in their respective countries before elections.
However, Friday’s upcoming inflation data will remain in focus for further directional moves by the gold futures, which could keep the Fed reluctant to hold interest rate cuts.
Disclaimer: Readers are requested to take any position in gold at their own risk, as this analysis is based only on observations.
