Who holds the Power in Iran and the answer to that question may determine just how long this war will last. As for now the power structure in Iran is supposed to be centered on the Supreme Leader position, which holds ultimate authority. Following the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in late February 2026 during the ongoing war with Israel and the US, his son Mojtaba Khamenei was elected as the new Supreme Leader on March 9, 2026, by the so-called Assembly of Experts. What they are experts at remain unclear and are they all on the same page.?
And while Mojtaba is widely expected to continue his father’s hardline policies it is not clear because we really have not heard from him. Reports say he is injured and maimed so now we have a so called temporary three-person leadership council that includes President Masoud Pezeshkian, Judiciary head Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejei, and senior cleric Alireza Arafi) bridged the gap immediately after the killing, with Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf also playing a prominent role in signaling preparedness.
Yet Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf seemed a bit stunned after President Donald Trump has publicly stated that the US is engaged in “productive talks” with a “respected” Iranian leader. I did not know that any Iranian leader has respect but lets go with that for a minute. Which respected leader is President Trump referring to when he mentions “major points of agreement” and claims that Iran “wants to make a deal” to end the war? Trump specifically noted that his special envoy, Steve Witkoff, along with his son-in-law Jared Kushner, have been engaged in discussions with Iranian representatives, including talks that reportedly took place on Sunday.
Multiple reports, citing Israeli officials and US sources, identify Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf as the key Iranian figure in these indirect or direct contacts. Mediators are reportedly working toward a possible in-person meeting (potentially in Islamabad, with VP Vance possibly involved). Ghalibaf has denied any negotiations, calling reports “fake news” aimed at manipulating markets and oil prices. Iran has also officially pushed back against the claims. Fake News to manipulate the markets? Never heard of such a thing.
Sabereen News, an IRGC-affiliated outlet, denied reports of Ghalibaf’s talks with the US, calling them attempts to divide officials and damage his reputation, which let’s face it wasn’t much of a good one in the first place. The outlet insisted that leaders remain united in continuing the conflict and dismissed any claims of internal discord or negotiations. Still, questions linger about whether Ghalibaf is secretly negotiating.
Or is this a classic divide and conquer strategy by the Trump administration President Trump of course right in the chair out the infrastructure and Iran and Iran told them exactly what they would do in response so President Trump may have got the information he needed to prepare for the next level of attacks. Israel’s Prime Minister Netanyahu believes President Trump sees the war’s achievements as leverage for negotiations with Iran, having spoken to Trump earlier about the situation.
This comes as the walls are closing in on the Iranian regime as that of countries joining the fight continue to increase. The Wall Street Journal Reports that Saudi Arabia and its Gulf allies are inching closer to openly joining the fight against Iran after repeated Iranian missile and drone attacks disrupted their economies and threatened long-term control over the Strait of Hormuz.
Saudi Arabia has quietly agreed to let U.S. forces use King Fahd Air Base for operations, reversing its earlier refusal to allow attacks on Iran from its territory. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is now eager to restore deterrence and is reportedly close to deciding to join the strikes directly, with one source saying it is “only a matter of time.” Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan warned last week that “Saudi Arabia’s patience with Iranian attacks is not unlimited.”
The Journal also says that the United Arab Emirates has begun cracking down on Iranian assets, shutting down the Iranian Hospital and Iranian Club in Dubai—facilities allegedly linked to the regime and the IRGC—and is debating sending its military into the conflict while opposing any ceasefire that leaves Iran’s capabilities intact. The moves threaten to cut off Tehran’s access to foreign currency and global financial networks at a time when its economy is buckling.
Though Gulf states publicly insist they will not participate in attacks or allow their airspace to be used, evidence suggests otherwise: verified videos indicate ground-launched missiles against Iran originated from Bahrain, and U.S. refueling aircraft were damaged by Iranian strikes at Saudi Arabia’s Prince Sultan Air Base according to the Journal.
Currently, despite ongoing attacks from Iran, markets are experiencing a slight upward movement; however, volatility is expected to remain elevated throughout the day. Both the gasoline crack spread, and the diesel crack spreads are trending higher, indicating continued concerns regarding supply tightness. For those interested in trading products, this could present a way to trade the products.
Sunshine on my shoulder season natural gas is a bit higher but below $3 is shoulder season is upon us and spring is springing and springing. Nat Gas is trading a bit firmer overnight, hovering around the $2.90–$2.93 level on the April contract after taking a pretty good smack yesterday on warmer weather forecasts. We gave back some of the recent geopolitical premium, but the market still feels constructive underneath.
Fox Weather’s March outlook (and the latest updates) continues to call for warmer-than-average temperatures across much of the central and eastern U.S., with above-normal readings and a chance for some early heat waves already flipping on air conditioners in the Southwest and West. That’s shifting the narrative from heating demand to the early stages of power burn as we head into shoulder season and eventually summer cooling needs.
On the fundamentals: Latest storage showed a 35 Bcf build for the week ending March 13 (stocks at 1,883 Bcf) – we’re now sitting comfortably above last year and right around the five-year average as we flip into injection season. Production remains strong near 109–110 Bcf/d. LNG feedgas nominations are holding up well near 19–20 Bcf/d despite the global headlines.
Geopolitics is still providing a floor. Ongoing tensions and supply disruptions out of the Middle East (especially impacts on LNG flows) are keeping a bid under the broader energy complex, even as domestic weather turns milder.
