Today, when the US-Iran conflict reached its 125th day, ticked higher and tested the day’s high at $4,092.40 on the daily chart, still pressing into a dense resistance zone ($4,035–$4,124) after a counter-trend rally, after testing the lows at $3,953.65 on June 30 — bearish momentum dominates, with a high risk of a bull trap.
Japanese yen rallied sharply against the dollar on Thursday following market speculation that Tokyo officials conducted “rate checks,” keeping traders on high alert for formal currency intervention.
The spike in the yen temporarily knocked the greenback, though the U.S. dollar subsequently steadied against a basket of currencies as hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh underpinned the U.S. currency.
The sharp movement fuelled speculation that the Bank of Japan () had conducted rate checks – a procedure where central bank officials call commercial banks to ask for currency purchase prices. The move is widely interpreted by market participants as a precursor to direct market intervention.
Today’s decline (dollar) lacks the abrupt, disorderly price action that has typically characterised previous interventions. Traders appear to be reducing long-dollar positions after became increasingly stretched and ahead of this week’s US jobs report.
Hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh on Wednesday underpinned the dollar, amid growing conviction that the central bank will raise interest rates this year.
fell on Thursday as traders continued to assess mediated U.S.-Iran negotiations, with hopes for improving supply expectations keeping pressure on the market despite lingering geopolitical uncertainty.
Markets were digesting the outcome of indirect U.S.-Iran talks in Doha, where negotiators concluded two days of technical discussions without a breakthrough toward a lasting peace agreement, although Qatar said the talks made positive progress, and both sides agreed to continue negotiations. The discussions focused on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and other confidence-building measures, while both sides agreed to continue negotiations, keeping hopes for a diplomatic resolution alive.
Although tensions have eased since a flare-up in fighting in recent days, traders have continued to monitor developments closely, with any disruption to crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz still posing a possible risk to global energy supplies.
I find that the short-term bullish bounce is losing steam, as volume fades and multiple technical barriers converge just overhead, forming a bearish crossover on the daily chart, after the 200 EMA ($4,300) has been pierced by the 20 EMA ($4,200) and 9 EMA ($4,112).
While gold futures are trading just above the 9 EMA, right now, as the U.S. in June, compared to 129,000 in May and economists’ expectations of 114,000.
The for the month came in at 4.2%, versus estimates that it would match May’s level of 4.3%, according to Labor Department data released just now.
Undoubtedly, this is only a sudden reaction due to some positional changes, as the large positions are mostly created before the announcement of important economic data.
Now, gold futures are trying to hold above the immediate resistance at $4,124.19, but facing significant selling pressure, as still facing resistant to sustain above the tested low on March 23, 2026, as the US-Iran peace deal is stuck in a Catch-22 position.
For mapping the strength of the post-job data announcement behaviour of the gold futures, let’s have a look at 1-Hr. chart.
On the 1-hour Chart, gold futures are signalling extensive bearish pressure above the key resistance at $4,124, as both hourly candles look identical to repeat the reversal to retest the recently tested lows at $3,955.62 on June 30, 2026.
