On Friday, the US market will remain closed to celebrate the 250th Independence Day, while the US President stuck in a peace deal with Iran as the peace accord, signed on June 17, 2026, has a catch-22 position in a clause, ensure an over stretch this probe to resolve without emphasizing most important issues like de-nuclearization of Iran and limit it’s claim over the Strait of Hormuz.
Undoubtedly, the absence of direct talks has reinforced uncertainty over how quickly Washington and Tehran can resolve outstanding issues under their 60-day negotiating framework, including the future of the Strait of Hormuz.
Tehran also seemed to be turning a political screw against President Donald Trump and testing how far his patience will stretch as he seeks to preserve what he has characterized as a triumphant deal to end the war.
Washington could not allow Iran to control shipping through the strait. To do so would suggest it was defeated in a war it started. The Islamic Republic would acquire the capacity to take the global economy hostage and to exert political pressure on the US at any moment it chose. In the process, US power in the region, expressed by its capacity to protect allies, would weaken.
Amid such a scenario, I find that futures are signalling weakness, as stuck in a narrow range between $4,124.19 and $4,035.38 since June 23, 2026, while gold futures have tested a low at $3,955, before reversing back to the defined trading range.
On a daily chart, despite a bouncing move on Thursday to test the day’s high at $4,156.55 and the day’s low at $4,043, gold futures are trading at $4,134.47, finding it difficult to hold above the immediate resistance at $4,124.19.
On 1-Hr. chart, gold futures look ready to move downward soon, and a breakdown below the immediate support at $4,035.38 could trigger selling spree within next few hours, while the last 4 hourly candle will play a decisive role in defining the further directional move during the upcoming week, as the fear of President Trump’s shift on weekends could create a jolting move on next week’s opening.
