On Wednesday, speaking at a NATO summit in Turkey, Trump accused Tehran of double-dealing and cast doubt on the status of the agreement.
“We make a deal, and everyone’s agreed. No nuclear weapons. We make a deal. They go outside, talk to the press, and they say we never even talked about it. There’s something wrong with them. They’re cuckoo. As far as I’m concerned, it’s over,” Trump said.
Markets reacted sharply soon after President Donald Trump suggested that a fragile interim peace deal between the U.S and Iran was “over,” sending higher and sparking new inflation worries.
Against this backdrop, oil prices marched higher, clawing back some recent losses recorded in the days after the signing of the framework peace deal on June 17. A jump in crude prices following the start of the war ignited fears of an inflation wave hitting countries around the world.
Whether central banks, particularly the Federal Reserve, will react to the inflation concerns by raising interest rates remains a key source of debate in markets. Bets on an imminent Fed hike cooled following lower-than-anticipated payrolls data last week, but those wagers on an upcoming increase are once again heating up following the tit-for-tat strikes.
Today, while I was writing my previous analysis, explaining the technical formations, which were already signalling extended bearish pressure on movements of , as Gold Traders Watching Fed Minutes, Middle East Escalation for Next Move, President Trump fuelled this selling by a sudden shift that regenerated stagflation fear once again.
Markets are now awaiting minutes from the ’s June meeting, which are due to be published later on Wednesday. The central bank left interest rates unchanged at a range of 3.5% to 3.75% at the gathering, but some projections from Fed members forecast rate bumps in 2026.
Elevated rates can make non-yielding assets like gold less appealing to investors. At the same time, a firmer U.S. dollar could cause bullion to become more expensive for overseas buyers.
Technical Levels to Watch
But technical formations are indicating that the bearish tone has been confirmed by Trump’s statement on a new jolt to a fragile peace deal, and could experience acceleration in the selling spree if gold futures find a breakdown below the recently tested key support at $3,955 on June 30, 2026, during the next two sessions this week.
On a daily chart, after opening the day at $4,109.61, tested the day’s high at $4,144.77, and the day’s low at $4,050.79, gold futures are trading at $4,080.75, maintaining a 70-degree slide, after testing a high at $4,214.45, much below the 9 EMA ($4,127), while the 9 EMA has come below the key support at the 200 EMA ($4,302) and 20 EMA ($4,181), forming a “Bearish Crossover” on daily chart.
On the 1-Hr. chart, gold futures, after finding some initial support near $4,050, gold futures are testing the sliding path of a 70-degree angle, which is much below the uptrend line, which started from the tested low of June 30 at $3,955.38.
Undoubtedly, bearish pressure remains high due to a sudden surge in oil prices, as ticked higher by more than 4%. Fresh bouts of selling will push gold futures towards the next support at $3,955.38, where a breakdown could push the futures to test the next support at $3,860 this week.
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Disclaimer: Readers are advised to take any position in gold and oil at their own risk, as this analysis is based solely on observations.
