Oil prices filled the downside gap last week and are turning higher this week after President Trump revoked Iran’s oil licenses and made it clear, saying, “As far as I’m concerned, it’s over.” He also said of the Iranian regime that “they’re scum, led by sick people,” while CENTCOM hit Iranian military targets at will. Not only that, but the Iranians must also not be very smart. Even NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said the U.S. attacks on Iran were absolutely necessary, increasing the odds that NATO may join the fight and help free the Strait of Hormuz from attacks by Iran.
has been moving firmly higher, trading on the first night of the war near $67.55 as the news developed. followed right along, pushing toward the mid-$70s.
The move marks a sharp reversal after prices had eased on hopes for a longer-lasting peace and filled the beginning-of-the-war upward price gap, which was our downside price target. But renewed tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, including attacks on tankers, brought a quick U.S. response.
By revoking the temporary sanctions waiver that had allowed limited Iranian oil sales through mid-August, the message is clear: the MOU depends on performance, and Iran did not perform. Now it will suffer the consequences.
This is bullish for the near term. With Iranian barrels now facing renewed restrictions, supply risks are back on the table, supporting prices even as global markets digest other factors. President Trump’s direct comments underscore a no-nonsense approach that markets are rewarding with higher crude values—good news for U.S. producers and energy investors who thrive on strength and stability at home.
Looking ahead, we’ll keep a close eye on inventories, demand signals, and any further developments out of the Middle East.
The reported that U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 399,000 barrels for the week ending July 3, 2026. This was a much smaller draw than the previous week’s substantial 6.1-million-barrel decline and came in below analyst expectations of around a 1.5-million-barrel drop.
Additional details from the report include a strong draw of 2.929 million barrels, which signals robust summer driving demand, along with a 1.801 million barrel decline in distillates, a 69,000 barrel drop at Cushing, and a separate 6.2 million barrel decline in the SPR. Commercial crude inventories (excluding the SPR) continue their multi-week downward trend, having fallen nearly 60 million barrels over the past 12 weeks, though they remain only modestly lower year-to-date.
While the smaller crude draw can lean mildly bearish in isolation by pointing to somewhat softer demand dynamics or ample supply, the solid product draws help underscore demand resilience heading into peak summer driving season. Markets are now awaiting today’s official data for confirmation, with geopolitical risks around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz continuing to add a premium. This setup aligns with ongoing U.S. production levels in the 13.8 million barrels per day range and variable global signals.
The U.S. energy dominance story remains intact, and these moves reinforce America’s leverage, and Iran is crazy for deciding to attack ships in the Strait.
Just consider that Iran got a window to ship a bunch of barrels and took full advantage of the ceasefire, only to let it blow up.
Iran has aggressively pushed oil out since the mid-June memorandum of understanding (MoU) and sanctions waivers. Reports indicate they’ve moved 40-50 million barrels or more in a short window, with daily loadings rebounding sharply. Tanker tracking shows peaks around 1.5-2+ million barrels per day (bpd) in recent periods, drawing down floating storage and tapping held-back volumes from ports like Chabahar and Kharg Island. Much of this heads to China, their primary buyer.
This was a win for Tehran in the short term, giving the regime an out from total war if it wanted one, as Trump lifted restrictions on buying Iranian oil. Iran’s pre-war exports hovered around 1.7 million bpd; the surge helps refill coffers after the blockade hammered May flows down to roughly 200,000 to 300,000 bpd, a six-year nadir.
Recent days have shown 10 million to 20 million barrels transiting during peak periods, with transparent flows hitting their highest levels since the war began. U.S. Central Command and tanker data confirm strong movement.
This comes as the confirms that U.S. petroleum exports reached a record in April as disruptions to international crude oil and refined product flows through the Strait of Hormuz increased global demand for U.S. exports. Exports increased to 13.6 million barrels per day (b/d) in April, 15% more than the previous record set in March.
The EIA says crude oil exports made up the largest share of total petroleum exports, averaging 5.6 million b/d in April, 21% more than the previous record set in December 2023. Propane made up the second-largest share, with exports exceeding the 2.0 million b/d mark for the first time in monthly data, and distillate fuel oil made up the third-largest share, increasing to 1.6 million b/d, the most since July 2017.
U.S. exports of finished petroleum products—which is mostly made up of distillate fuel oil, motor gasoline, jet fuel, and petroleum coke—were the highest since December 2024, despite relatively average exports of motor gasoline.
Exports for other products including jet fuel, unfinished oils, and naphtha reached record highs in March and remained high in April but slightly below their record levels.
More recent weekly estimates suggest crude oil, distillate fuel, jet fuel, and propane exports remained above five-year (2021–2025) seasonal highs in May and June.
Of course, we also have the war-and-peace angle. President Trump says both sides in the Ukraine war want a settlement. That comes after weeks of Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil infrastructure, knocking out refineries and triggering gas lines and fuel shortages across Russia and occupied areas, with production down sharply and rationing hitting dozens of regions.
Russia also escalated its attacks on Ukraine this week, launching some of its heaviest missile and drone barrages in months against Kyiv and other cities, killing civilians and intensifying the violence. The stalemate needs to end. Peace talks need real momentum before more energy pain and bloodshed drag on.
is getting caught up in the oil rally as Fox Weather reports highlight the intense heat driving power demand across the southern United States. Oil prices are pushing higher on renewed geopolitical tensions, including incidents in the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. revocation of Iranian oil waivers, and tanker attacks. This has helped WTI defend support near $69 and climb toward the $70 level recently, with Brent holding firmer. That risk premium is spilling over into natural gas, which has its own supportive fundamentals at work.
Hot weather is boosting air-conditioning load and gas-fired power generation, with forecasts calling for highs in the 90s to 100s through mid-July and even hotter desert conditions. European LNG storage remains low, raising demand for U.S. exports amid ongoing Hormuz supply worries, while strong LNG flows continue to tighten domestic balances. U.S. production remains robust near record levels, supported by associated gas from oil plays, and storage is comfortable, which limits bigger upside for now. Still, August NYMEX natural gas is holding key technical support around the $3.20 to $3.30 area.
Overall, the combination of oil sympathy, summer heat, and export strength is giving natural gas a constructive near-term tone. EIA forecasts see Henry Hub prices averaging in the $3.30 to $3.60 range in coming periods, with longer-term tailwinds from LNG growth and rising power and AI data center demand. This market has real structural support, even as oil often steals the headlines.
