Trump’s pursuit of an exit plan has come as he faces pressure to permanently end a war that has killed thousands, inflicted economic pain at home and driven down his approval ratings just months ahead of November’s U.S. midterm elections.
The latest attacks, which overshadowed a NATO summit that Trump attended this week in Turkey, dented hopes of turning the memorandum signed on June 17 into a final peace deal to end the war, which began with U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on February 28.
Most analysts remain sceptical that the parties can achieve a comprehensive settlement within the 60-day negotiation period specified in the agreement. The most contentious issues have been deferred to intermittent discussions, which have yielded minimal progress, and the timing of the next round of talks remains uncertain.
Iran, which has suffered heavy damage to its economy and military capabilities, also faces mounting pressure after Washington revoked a waiver allowing Tehran to sell oil internationally, undoing one of its biggest gains under the interim agreement.
More than three weeks after the signing of a “memorandum of understanding” to begin a truce between the U.S. and Iran, the flare-up has highlighted the difficulties Trump faces in forging a comprehensive peace deal and a face-saving exit from the war.
His choices are limited and mostly bad, analysts say.
Any heavy escalation beyond tit-for-tat strikes could risk a return to full-fledged war, even though Trump insisted on Wednesday that the latest events would end “very quickly” as global oil prices spiked around 7%.
However, backing down in the face of Iranian defiance could add to Tehran’s sense that it can assert leverage over the world’s most important oil-shipping channel anytime it sees fit.
Trump may be hoping he can bomb Iran back to the negotiating table for talks about the fate of its nuclear program, which he set as his main war objective, but most experts see little sign that Tehran will make the kind of deep concessions he is seeking.
“Trump has put himself in a box,” said Aaron David Miller, a former Middle East negotiator for Democratic and Republican administrations. “Whether through military or diplomatic means, he doesn’t look likely to gain much from Iran.”
Even so, its hardline rulers appear willing to withstand further blows, and some analysts suggested this week’s strikes by both sides may have been aimed at staking out positions for future negotiations.
Jonathan Panikoff, a former deputy U.S. national intelligence officer for the Middle East, said this pattern was likely to continue for the foreseeable future.
“The situation is not going to revert to full-scale war,” said Panikoff, now at the Atlantic Council think tank in Washington. “But the default setting is now managed instability – recurring violence with no permanent off-ramp.”
Trump, who campaigned for a second term on promises to avoid foreign interventions and focus on Americans’ economic concerns, has framed the interim agreement as a resounding U.S. victory – even as Iran has made similar claims.
Still, most analysts agree that Trump, who once demanded Iran’s “unconditional surrender,” has been stymied on many of his often-shifting goals for the war.
However, at the root of the latest outbreak of hostilities are differing interpretations of what the preliminary deal means for control of the strait, where Iran showed its ability during the war to choke off one-fifth of the world’s oil shipments.
Iran sees itself having a future role in managing the waterway, possibly even charging fees or tolls, while Trump and U.S. Gulf allies insist on a return to free and safe passage.
Undoubtedly, Iran has judged that Trump doesn’t want to get sucked into an open-ended war, and the Gulf is desperate for normalcy. I feel that Trump will fight for a few days, and the Gulf Arab states will push for him to stop.
The looming U.S. midterms and concerns that high gasoline prices driven by the war could turn voters against his Republican Party are also widely seen as a pressure point for Trump.
Trump knows he needs to focus on the economy, as he knows that by continuing the war, he would risk becoming like the president who governed at the start of the Great Depression.
I observed that when Trump won the presidential election in November 2024, active market participants had sensed the expected behaviour as he was expected to fulfil his dreams what he couldn’t during his first term – a move to prove him the greatest U.S. president by implementing odd policies what his predecessors couldn’t as they were full of fear or really wanted to keep the welfare of American citizen at utmost levels.
Soon, Donald Trump took office on June 20, and he started to impose uneven trade tariffs on trading partners, resulting in a dent in the global economy, along with the American economy.
Undoubtedly his obsolete policies not only raised economic uncertainty globally but also raised stagflation fear among the masses, resulted in panic buying spree in precious metals, especially gold and , which were termed as the best options to hedge inflation, while the economic growth started to derail due to surging tariff war, while the Federal Reserve went on aggressive interest rate cuts to control inflationary pressure, despite surging political interference by President Trump and his administration.
And, finally, gold and silver prices continued to strengthen throughout 2025, till forming a peak on January 29, 2026, as Trump’s policies shift to prove him the strongest man, who can do anything that looks impossible in the 21st century.
He surprised the whole world by capturing the Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and his wife on January 2, 2026, only to capture the rare earth material and oil reserve of Venezuela by force. This success boosted his confidence to control any country’s natural resources by force, as he started to consider himself a more powerful U.S. president than his predecessors.
Then his second target was Greenland soon after he achieved his success in Venezuela, but he couldn’t fulfil this dream due to global criticism, especially from NATO members.
Suddenly, Iran caught his attention as one of the oil-rich nations in the Middle East – a global oil and gas supplier, which was fulfilling the demand from the most populated countries like China and India, along with Europeans too.
Trump joined his close ally, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, who had long wished to vanish Iran, as it was emerging as one of the most powerful nations in the Middle East.
Finally, both the US and Israel started bombing Iran on February 28, 2026, resulting in heavy sell-offs in precious metals and global stock markets, raising recessionary fears all over the world as Iran immediately choked the strategic waterway, the Strait of Hormuz, through which one-fifth of the global oil and gas supply had been passing without any restriction for a long time.
Meanwhile, Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz on Thursday said his country was prepared to resume its military campaign against Iran if needed, vowing to do so “with even greater force.”
The latest remarks came as new fighting erupted between the United States and Iran, raising fears of a return to full-scale war after an April ceasefire and a U.S.-Iran agreement in June to end hostilities.
On evaluating the movements of on different time-pattern charts, I find that the gold futures are breathing slowly due to surging bearish pressure as the fragile peace deal is in a “Catch-22” position, resulting in the overstretching of the opening of the Strait of Hormuz.
While the Iranian Prime Minister Netanyahu looks too eager to deviate from U.S. President Trump in delaying a peace deal with Iran by making excuses one after another, despite providing a 60-day roadmap.
On Friday, the energy-driven inflation looks horrible enough when the US-Iran conflict has entered its 133rd day, gold futures, after opening the day at $4,132.70, tested the day’s high at $4,144.47, and day’s low at $4,081.77, are trading at $4,111.50, trying to hold a long-tested support on November 25, 2025, but signalling persisting weakness as maintaining a 26-degree slide since March 2, 2026, when the gold futures tested second peak at $5,434.65, followed by a steep fall that tested a low on March 23, 2026 at $4,117.65.
Undoubtedly, gold futures are currently trading on July 10, 2026, below the tested lows on March 23 this year, ensures a breakdown below this could push the futures to test fresh lows this month due to Energy-Driven Inflation Keeps Bearish Pressure Intact, as the ceasefire seems to collapse on Friday, while the US has been striking and then pausing to avoid escalation as negotiators meet behind the scenes.
Technically, I feel that Trump’s changing stances on weekends matter a lot, as he is habitual of shifting his statements on weekends, exactly opposite to what he said a day or two earlier, providing a sudden jolt to markets.
I conclude that though, the weekly closing levels matter a lot for the further directional clues, as the net speculative positions are squared off at the last moment before the weekly closing, while, from the Federal Reserve’s June meeting also offered some support to gold after revealing policymakers were divided over the need for additional hikes, raising expectations that borrowing costs could ease later this year. Lower interest rates tend to benefit non-yielding bullion by reducing its opportunity cost.
However, the minutes also underscored growing concern among Fed officials over persistent inflation. U.S. price pressures have accelerated since the outbreak of the U.S.-Iran conflict in late February and remain well above the central bank’s 2% target, suggesting policymakers may be cautious about cutting rates too quickly.
