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Gold: Rising Geopolitical Tensions Amplify Energy-Driven Inflation Risks | Investing.com

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July 14, 2026
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On Monday, President Donald Trump said that the United States would resume blocking Iranian vessels from transiting the Strait of Hormuz and called for a 20% reimbursement fee on all other cargo moving through the strategic waterway.

Earlier in the day, Trump had said, “We’re going to keep the strait, and we’ll probably run it. We’ll become the guardian of the strait. Maybe we’ll call it the guardian angel of the strait.

And we should be reimbursed for that,” in a phone interview on Fox News’ Fox & Friends.

The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one-fifth of global consumption passes, has become the central flashpoint in the escalating confrontation. Iran’s effective blockade of the narrow shipping lane has fuelled a surge in energy prices and intensified fears of higher global inflation.

“We’re going to guard it. We’re going to get paid for guarding it — a lot of money,” Trump said.

Iran swiftly rejected Trump’s remarks. The country’s top joint military command said Tehran would not allow the United States to intervene in the management of the Strait of Hormuz and warned that any cooperation by regional countries with Washington would be regarded as an act of war against Iran.

The exchange underscores the rapidly escalating standoff over one of the world’s most strategically important maritime chokepoints, raising concerns over further disruptions to global energy supplies and shipping.

U.S. Central Command said on Sunday evening that it had concluded its latest strikes against Iran, following claims from President Donald Trump that the Strait of Hormuz remained open to commercial shipping.

Central Command (Centcom) said in a statement that it had hit dozens of targets in multiple locations across Iran, with the aggression aimed at hobbling Tehran’s ability to stage attacks in Hormuz.

Earlier on Sunday, Trump said the Strait of Hormuz remained open to commercial shipping, contrary to Iran’s claims that the key waterway was closed in response to recent U.S. aggression.

surged by over 7.5% on Monday following developments over the weekend, as markets braced for further supply disruptions in the Middle East. Marine Traffic data showed a small number of vessels currently transiting Hormuz.
Gold Futures Daily Chart
Silver Futures Daily ChartOn Monday, fell nearly 2.74%, while traded down approximately 4.17%, as renewed strikes in the Middle East stoked inflation concerns, reinforcing expectations that U.S. interest rates could remain higher for longer.

Today, gold futures performed in line with my previous analysis, ’Gold: US-Iran Escalation Keeps Bearish Pressure Intact’ (https://www.investing.com/analysis/gold-usiran-escalation-keeps-bearish-pressure-intact-200683754).

This movement signals the precarious state of the ongoing conflict between the United States and Iran. President Trump’s stated objective remains control over the Strait of Hormuz, as he claims that all prior targets have been achieved.

Now, energy-driven inflation could push gold and silver prices to test new lows this week, as the conflict between the US and Iran has no sign of easing, despite the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding on June 17, 2026, and since that conflict has attained a horrible stage, where it has been shifting to a full-fledged war.

I conclude that the prospect of sustained energy price gains has revived fears of another inflation shock, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve may have to keep interest rates elevated for longer. Higher yields and a firmer tend to reduce the appeal of non-interest-bearing assets such as gold.

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