Fundamental & Geopolitical
Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have intensified once again as the temporary ceasefire agreement (Memorandum of Understanding/MoU) between the United States and Iran continues to deteriorate.
The conflict escalated after two U.S. soldiers were killed and another went missing during Iranian ballistic missile and drone attacks targeting U.S. and allied forces in Jordan. Meanwhile, Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, declared that the country had delivered an “unforgettable lesson” to the United States while dismissing President Donald Trump’s commitment to the interim agreement as “worthless and not credible.”
Iran has also officially suspended its commitments under the interim agreement, accusing Washington of violating every provision of the MoU. At the same time, military operations have expanded, with U.S. strikes reportedly targeting strategic bridges inside Iran and desalination facilities in Kuwait. Tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz have also resurfaced, as Iran insists on maintaining control over the vital shipping route while the United States continues restricting Iranian maritime activities.
The renewed conflict has increased concerns over potential disruptions to global oil supplies. Higher crude oil prices could fuel inflation expectations, encouraging markets to maintain expectations for a hawkish Federal Reserve. As a result, the U.S. dollar continues to benefit from both safe-haven demand and expectations of higher interest rates. Despite geopolitical uncertainty, remains under pressure as the stronger dollar and elevated Treasury yields continue to outweigh its traditional safe-haven appeal.
Technical Analysis
Daily
remains technically bullish on the daily timeframe, maintaining a clear higher high–higher low market structure while trading above both the 50-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMA). This confirms that the medium-term uptrend remains intact.
In the near term, DXY is expected to complete a technical pullback toward the former resistance area, which now acts as support. This zone also coincides with the rising 50-day SMA and the psychological 100.00 level, providing a strong confluence of support. As long as buyers defend this area, the broader bullish trend is expected to resume, with the next upside target located at 101.982.
GOLD 1D
On the daily timeframe, gold continues to display a strong bearish market structure. Price remains below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, confirming that sellers continue to dominate the longer-term trend.
Recent price action suggests that the current movement is merely a continuation of the existing downtrend, with no meaningful technical evidence indicating a long-term bullish reversal. Unless gold is able to reclaim both major moving averages, the broader outlook remains firmly bearish, leaving the market vulnerable to further downside pressure.
GOLD 4H
On the 4-hour timeframe, gold continues to form lower highs and lower lows, confirming that the internal market structure remains bearish.
This resistance area is reinforced by several technical confluences, including the 50%–61.8% Fibonacci retracement, previous support turned resistance, and both the 50-period and 200-period SMAs, which continue to act as dynamic resistance.
As long as price remains below these confluence levels, the prevailing bearish structure is expected to remain intact, increasing the probability of another move toward a new lower low.
GOLD 1H
The 1-hour timeframe continues to reflect a short-term bearish trend. Price is currently expected to stage a technical pullback toward the premium zone before potentially resuming its downward movement.
This resistance area is supported by multiple technical confluences, including the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels, as well as the 200-period SMA, which serves as dynamic resistance.
In addition, the 4,103 level remains the key Protected High. As long as price stays below this level, the bearish market structure remains valid, and the probability of printing another lower low remains high. The nearest medium-term downside objective is located around 3,888.
Conclusion
Gold remains under pressure as both macroeconomic and technical factors continue to favor the U.S. dollar.
From a fundamental perspective, escalating geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran have strengthened demand for the dollar as a safe-haven asset while simultaneously increasing inflation expectations through the risk of higher oil prices. This has reinforced market expectations that the Federal Reserve could maintain a hawkish monetary policy stance.
Technically, the Dollar Index continues to exhibit a healthy bullish trend, whereas gold maintains bearish structures across the daily, 4-hour, and 1-hour timeframes. Any short-term recovery is currently viewed as a corrective pullback unless price breaks above its key resistance levels.
As long as gold remains below the 4,103 Protected High, the broader outlook continues to favor sellers, with downside potential toward the 3,888 support area.
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Disclaimer : This market analysis is intended solely for educational and informational purposes and should not be considered financial or investment advice. Financial markets are inherently volatile and involve substantial risk. Traders and investors should conduct their own independent analysis and implement appropriate risk management before making any trading decisions.
