remain in a corrective phase after reaching a weekly high of 4,171.4 before encountering significant selling pressure. The rejection occurred just below the VC PMI Weekly Sell 1 level at 4,166, reinforcing this area as major resistance. Since then, prices have retraced toward the Daily VC PMI Mean near 4,061, where buyers and sellers are once again competing for control. This price behavior reflects a normal mean-reversion process following an overbought condition rather than confirmation of a long-term bearish trend.
The VC PMI (Variable Changing Price Momentum Indicator) identifies price levels where probabilities favor reversals back toward equilibrium. The Daily Mean at 4,061 is the market’s balance point. Trading above this level favors higher prices, while sustained trading below it increases the probability of testing lower support zones.
The first major support lies at Daily Buy 1 (4,035). Historically, when prices reach this level, there is approximately a 90% probability of reverting back toward the Daily Mean. If selling pressure accelerates, Daily Buy 2 (3,999) becomes the next statistically significant accumulation zone, where historical probabilities increase to approximately 95% for a reversal back toward equilibrium.
On the upside, resistance begins at Daily Sell 1 (4,096) and strengthens at Daily Sell 2 (4,121). A decisive close above these resistance levels would indicate renewed institutional buying and open the door for another challenge of the recent high near 4,171. Above that level, the Weekly Sell 2 target at 4,260 becomes the next projected objective.
The Square of 9 analysis adds another layer of confirmation to the current market structure. The recent high aligns closely with an important geometric resistance angle, suggesting that the correction currently underway is occurring within a natural harmonic cycle rather than representing a change in the primary trend. As long as the market remains above the major Weekly Buy levels at 3,982 and 3,892, the longer-term bullish structure remains intact.
Cycle analysis indicates that the market is entering an important timing window extending from late July into early August. These cycle dates frequently coincide with increased volatility and trend reversals as seasonal and technical forces converge. Traders should closely monitor price action around the Daily Buy levels during this period for evidence that institutional buyers are returning to the market.
The MACD oscillator has also begun flattening after declining from overbought territory, indicating that downside momentum is slowing. A bullish crossover accompanied by price holding above Daily Buy 1 would strengthen the probability of another advance toward the Weekly resistance objectives.
Using the VC PMI methodology, the preferred strategy is to accumulate long positions only at statistically identified Buy levels while reducing exposure into Sell 1 and Sell 2 resistance zones. This disciplined, probability-based approach removes much of the emotional decision-making that often undermines trading performance.
Disclosure: The VC PMI is a proprietary quantitative methodology designed to identify statistically significant price levels based on mean reversion principles. Square of 9 and cycle-date analysis are supplementary timing tools used to identify potential turning points in market behavior. All probabilities are based on historical market tendencies and do not guarantee future results. Trading futures, options, ETFs, and leveraged financial instruments involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for every investor. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Sound risk management, disciplined position sizing, and independent judgment remain essential components of any successful trading strategy.
