As the conflict between the US and Iran reached its 154th day on Friday, neither side demonstrated readiness for a full-scale war. The United States has exhibited limited interest in escalating the conflict regionally, as such an expansion could threaten energy infrastructure, involve additional countries, increase oil prices, and further strain US military resources.
Iran may also try to avoid an all-out war because its weakened air defences, vulnerable industrial infrastructure and sanctions-constrained economy make rebuilding losses increasingly difficult and expensive.
Iran may have concluded that this creates room for a strategy based not on military victory but on sustained pressure.
Undoubtedly, a prolonged ceasefire under current conditions could actually leave Tehran in a weaker position. The US naval blockade of Iranian ports would continue, sanctions would remain, and Iran would still be largely excluded from international energy markets.
Iran’s surprise missile strike on a US base in Jordan earlier this week appeared difficult to explain. The attack effectively ended the fragile pause in direct US-Iran fighting and prompted Washington to resume strikes inside Iran. It was also unusual.
I find that if Tehran’s priority had been a ceasefire, the strike is difficult to explain. But if Iranian leaders judge that a controlled confrontation could offer greater strategic leverage, the decision becomes more understandable.
But one possible explanation is that Tehran believes that, despite the risks, a limited war serves its interests better.
Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar and other oil and gas exporting countries in the region could gradually resume normal exports while Iran remained economically isolated.
Undoubtedly, the limited trading range of the since June 24, 2026, between $3,958.15 and $4,125.61, reflects this phenomenon, as despite testing a high at $4,397.79 on June 17, when both countries signed fragile Memorandum of Understanding (MoU), gold futures experienced a steep slide and tested a low at $3,975.41 on June 24, 2026.
Technical Levels to Watch
On a daily chart, after opening the day at $4,104.60, which is also the day’s high, tested the day’s low at $4,071.15, gold futures are trading at $4,076.35, signaling persisting bearish pressure, as trading just below the immediate resistance at the 9 EMA ($4,077), which is trading below the 20 EMA ($4,091), forming a “Bearish Crossover”.
I find that a breakdown below the immediate support at $4,024 could push gold futures to test the next key support at $3,955.
On a 1-Hr. chart, gold futures are trying to hold the key support at the 200 EMA ($4,075), where a breakdown could accelerate the selling spree in today’s session, as the current scenario could experience a sudden jolt this weekend, as President Trump shifts his stance on Iran (https://www.investing.com/analysis/gold-faces-directional-risk-as-trumps-iran-stance-keeps-shifting-200684903 ).
I conclude that although Iran is paying a heavy military and economic price, disruption in the Strait of Hormuz and, through the Houthis, pressure around Bab al-Mandab continue to affect global shipping, insurance costs and energy markets. Even limited uncertainty forces governments, shipowners and importers to pay attention to Iran’s demands.
Disclaimer: Readers are advised to take any position in gold at their own risk, as this analysis is based solely on observations.
