On Sunday, as the conflict between the United States and Iran reached its 156th day, the Islamic Republic of Iran had not agreed to a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian sources familiar with the matter stated that Iran’s policy regarding the critical maritime corridor remains unchanged, according to Iran’s Fars news agency.
On Saturday, US President Donald Trump said he has cancelled planned attacks on Iran “subject to being able to rapidly make a deal”.
He claimed Iran and other countries in the Middle East had asked him to hold off any strikes and that “the perimeters of a deal have been agreed to”, including on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
The announcement came after Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warned that any “aggression” by the US and Israel will be met with a “decisive and proportionate response” in separate phone calls with the army chief of Pakistan and the foreign ministers of Turkiye and Saudi Arabia.
Meanwhile, Israeli forces have killed at least eight Palestinians across the Gaza Strip and destroyed a medical warehouse in Deir el-Balah, leaving a crater 20 metres (66ft) wide and 10 metres (33ft) deep.
Israeli forces have detained three Palestinians in the Dheisheh refugee camp, south of Bethlehem, and two in Nablus, according to the Wafa news agency.
The agency said Israeli forces raided homes in central Bethlehem and threatening signs were posted on the walls of the Salah al-Din Mosque in the area.
Raids across the occupied West Bank intensified this past week. Israeli soldiers and settlers attacked homes, farmland and other property. Israeli forces have reportedly used live fire, stun grenades and tear gas in the raids.
However, the US resumed attacks on Iran on July 8 after Tehran struck ships that it said had used an unauthorised route in the Strait of Hormuz. Trump later declared the ceasefire over.
Iran launches retaliatory attacks on what it says are US assets in Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Jordan and Qatar, as well as on ships in the Strait of Hormuz. Four US soldiers are killed in Jordan and Iraq.
Yemen’s Houthis announce a naval blockade of Saudi Arabia in the Red Sea on July 20, opening a new front in the war.
US paused its bombing campaign on July 25 after 13 consecutive nights of strikes, with Trump claiming Washington and Tehran were having “good talks”.
Trump meets Netanyahu at the White House on July 28. Then, at a cabinet meeting at Camp David on July 31, he says the US will continue hitting Iran “very hard” until Tehran can no longer withstand the pressure.
US media meanwhile report that Washington and Israel are planning “what would be one of the harshest bombing campaigns to date against energy infrastructure targets in Iran”.
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi holds separate phone calls with his counterparts in Saudi Arabia and Turkiye, as well as Pakistan’s army chief on August 1, warning of a “decisive and proportionate response” to any US-Israel aggression.
Trump calls off the threatened attacks, saying Iran and other regional countries had asked Washington to hold off because the parameters of a deal had been agreed.
Now, the situation remains on a knife-edge despite Trump calling off attacks, as Iran will not negotiate under the threat of further attacks, because in their history, anytime they’ve shown flexibility – including in the war last year, the 12-day war – which was construed by Washington as weakness, and it gets exploited, and it leads to more violence.
Undoubtedly, the tensions between the US and Iran are an “endurance test” and “a struggle of wills,” as decision-makers in Tehran and Washington could lose control of the conflict if the conflict continues to drag on.
Undoubtedly, issues that are now conflated with the Iran war – the griming tension in Lebanon, and the Israel-Palestine probe, along with the Saudi-Houthi tension and the Iraq issue.
At some point, the decision-makers lose control of the dynamic; even if they want to de-escalate, other actors may escalate, making it very, very difficult for the United States and Iran to extricate themselves.
So, if Trump’s claim that a deal was within reach is accurate, “that’s welcome news”.
But at the end of the day, the situation remains on a knife-edge, and I think the world will see in the coming days whether we see a real de-escalation or just further posturing, as we have witnessed in the past.
I conclude that the opening session of this week will define how the global markets understand the influence of the reality behind weekend developments – Is President Trump serious enough to end the war or he wants to come out of a “Catch-22” situation due to depleting stockpiles, as despite repeated threats by him hardly have any impact on Iran, as they are using the Strait of Hormuz as a part of war strategy.
Disclaimer: Readers are advised to take any position in and at their own risk, as this analysis is based solely on observations.
