On Monday, as the conflict between the United States and Iran reached its 157th day, Iran denied Donald Trump’s claim that new talks on ending the conflict would begin on Monday, after the US president called off what he said would have been “massive” strikes on the country.
Speaking on board Air Force One on Sunday, he said Iran “knew the extent of the attack because they saw it forming”, adding: “We’re talking to them in the form of a negotiation. It begins tomorrow afternoon.”
I have observed a recurring pattern in which announcements of potential breakthroughs frequently occur immediately before financial markets open following a weekend.
In an earlier post on Truth Social, Trump said he had been asked by Iran and US allies in the Middle East to “hold off” as the “perimeters” of a deal had been agreed.
But on Monday Iran’s foreign ministry denied they were negotiating with the US, or that there were any plans to do so.
Spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei added that Tehran was negotiating with Oman to reach “an understanding over a path to ensure the security of shipping passage through the Strait of Hormuz”.
Undoubtedly, Trump has repeatedly vowed that a negotiated end to the war is near, only for tit-for-tat strikes to resume.
In his remarks on Air Force One, Trump declined to outline a deadline for a deal to be struck with Tehran, adding: “We’ll just see how it is. We’re ready to go anytime we want… I’m not looking to kill people.”
Oman is trying to find a workaround with Tehran despite being attacked several times and is open to collecting some form of service charge to ensure safe navigation in the waterway and secure the goodwill of all parties to the conflict.
Meanwhile, the situation now on the Strait of Hormuz is the same as it has been since the US and Israeli strikes on Iran began. Now, Iran is dictating which ships can enter and exit the Gulf and attacking those ships that seek to sail without Iran’s permission.
Although the US is providing “a limited degree of protection” for vessels using this corridor, I find that it is not enough to prevent them from being attacked by Iran.
I find that Gulf states are certainly not keen on continued escalation after suffering a great deal of damage and with the possibility of the war extending beyond the region. That has resulted in Saudi Arabia weighing in to put pressure on the US.
Despite multiple breakdowns in the peace process, it’s still unclear whether Trump has agreed to a clear implementation mechanism that will lead to a sustainable outcome. I have already discussed.
Amid such geopolitical developments, rose on Monday, as oil prices retreated following a fresh de-escalation in Middle East tensions and the U.S. dollar softened.
, the global oil benchmark, fell by more than 7% on Monday. Oil prices, which have gyrated in recent weeks on developments in the Middle East, have been in focus as investors fret about the potential for energy-driven inflation and central bank monetary policy tightening.
Traders are now looking ahead to the release of key economic data this week, including the U.S. jobs report for July as well as trackers of factory and services sector activity.
I have already discussed the expected developments in detail in my previous article, Gold, Oil Outlook: US-Iran Tensions Leave Markets at a Crossroads, written on Sunday. are behaving the same as I predicted in my previous analyses.
Technical Levels to Watch
On the monthly chart, after opening this month at $4,137.75, gold futures tested a month’s high at $4,139.40. A low at $4,094.80, gold futures are trading at $4,094.30, trying to defend the immediate support at $4,100, where a breakdown could push the futures to test the next key support at $3,954.12, due to surging bearish pressure as trading much below the 9 EMA ($4,254). They could head to test the next key support at the 20 EMA ($3,913).
Undoubtedly, gold futures have been in a 74-degree slide since January 2026, with bears likely to hit the target at $3,954; a breakdown could push the futures to the next key support at $3,841.
On the weekly chart, after opening this week at $4,137.75, tested a weekly high at 4,139.40, and week’s low at $4,085.86, gold futures are trading at $4,086.62, signalling weakness due to the formation of a “Bearish Crossover” on weekly chart as the 9 EMA ($4,166) has pierced the 50 EMA ($4,223), while the 20 EMA ($4,317) has also moved downward, and could also pierced the 50 EMA this week.
Moreover, gold futures are trading below the key support at $4,124.32, signalling extensive selling pressure at the current levels.
On the daily chart: after opening the day at $4,130.62, tested the day’s high at $4,134.60, and day’s low at $4,074.65, gold futures are trading at $4,083.12, just below the 9 EMA and 20 EMA, while the 50 EMA has also pierced the 200 EMA along with 9 EMA and 20 EMA, forming a “Bearish Crossover” on the daily chart, where the immediate support is at $4,098, and the next key support will be at $3,955.60, where a breakdown could accelerate the selling spree.
On the 1-Hr. chart: weakness is clearly visible, as the 8:00 A.M. candle has pierced the key support at the 200 EMA ($4,067.43), signalling a slide is likely to turn steeper during the last hours today.
