Europe faces spiking prices this winter amid the lowest gas storage levels in more than a decade and tightening LNG markets amid the Middle East crisis.
EU storage sites were only 57% full as of August 5, data from Gas Infrastructure Europe shows. That’s the lowest level for this time of year since 2011 and well below the nearly 70% full storage at this time last year.
The low levels at the end of the 2025/2026 winter haven’t moved up quickly this summer as they did in previous years because the global LNG market severely tightened in the wake of the Iran war, which sent prices skyrocketing and Asia outbidding Europe for spot supply that’s not trapped in the Middle East.
As a result, Europe risks not meeting its indicative target of having gas storage sites 80% full at the start of December.
The thin cushion leaves prices vulnerable to violent spikes between November and March, especially in a cold winter in Europe, analysts say.
The disruption of LNG supply from Qatar has flipped the market to backwardation, with near-term prices higher than those further out in time. This doesn’t encourage stockpiling at present, leaving Europe exposed to the whims of the winter and to the uncertain recovery of LNG flows from the Middle East.
“If there is a very cold winter or there is an extended period of cold weather, then you might find that you have to do some sort of demand mitigation, higher prices, or else European markets would run out of gas,” David Lewis, senior research analyst at Wood Mackenzie, told Reuters.
WoodMac’s analysts last week warned that Europe’s historically low gas storage levels have placed winter 2026/27 supply security at risk.
“Low European inventories, strong Asian demand and limited new LNG supply growth almost guarantee elevated prices through this winter and into 2027,” said Massimo Di Odoardo, Vice President, Gas and LNG Research at Wood Mackenzie.
