On Thursday, as the US-Iran conflict reached its 195th day, President Trump indicated that negotiations with Iran are possible and suggested the conflict could conclude following the US mid-term elections.
Meanwhile, ongoing uncertainty in the oil market continues to heighten concerns about stagflation.
were little changed on Thursday as investors await U.S. inflation data for clues on whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at its meeting next week.
Higher Treasury yields and renewed Middle East tensions remain near-term headwinds, although a softer dollar and longer-term demand for bullion continue to offer support.
Gold has traded in a relatively narrow range around $4,400 in recent weeks after rebounding from a floor near $4,000 in July.
Investors have continued to weigh the metal’s longer-term appeal as a portfolio hedge against near-term pressure from higher bond yields and worsening tensions in the Middle East.
On Thursday, when the US-Iran reached its 195th day, US President Donald Trump said talks with Iran “could happen”, and claimed that the war will end “immediately” after the US midterm elections.
At the same time, U.S. President Donald Trump’s top private advisers have warned that the Iran war could drag on through the remainder of his term, the Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday.
Top advisers, including Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, have discussed the possibility of the Iran conflict extending past Inauguration Day in January 2029, the WSJ reported.
Meanwhile, Iran has criticized the International Atomic Energy Agency after its board of governors passed a resolution referring the country to the United Nations Security Council for the first time in 20 years over its refusal to allow inspections of its nuclear facilities.
Iranian state media is reporting that the sound of an explosion coming from the sea has been heard in the city of Jask.
An Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) spokesperson says a restricted area extending from Chabahar in Iran into parts of the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea will be announced, and any ship that passes through the area will be sanctioned.
Ebrahim Azizi, chair of the Iranian Parliament’s national security committee, has mocked US military personnel in a post on X, urging them to leave the Gulf.
“Iran’s navy just sent a clear message: the security and stability of the Persian Gulf are managed by Iran. To the remaining forces: Save what’s left of your gear and head home while you still can, and focus on defending your own borders!” said Azizi.
At the same time, Syria’s Foreign Ministry says Israel has violated its “territorial integrity” as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu toured Jabal al-Sheikh (Mount Hermon) today.
The ministry wrote on social media that Netanyahu’s entry into Syria today was “illegal” as he visited Israeli troops occupying the Syrian territory.
The ministry stated that “the continuation of Israeli incursions and attacks inside Syrian territory constitutes a dangerous escalation that threatens security and stability in the region”.
It also called for a return to the 1974 Separation of Forces Agreement, which includes a United Nations-patrolled buffer zone in the Israeli-occupied Syrian Golan Heights.
Undoubtedly, there are some differences between the ways the new sanctions on Israeli settlements are viewed by the UK Parliament vs the wider public.
There will be greater public support for this policy than there is, perhaps, in Westminster.
There has been, of course, a resounding criticism of this policy, including from opposition leader Kemi Badenoch. She stated that it was just going to add to the anti-Semitic feeling that has existed in the country.
Those concerns were also outlined by Chief Rabbi Ephraim Mirvis, who said that this was “a dark day for British Jews”.
Since October 7, 2023, there has been a steady and substantial rise in anti-Semitism and anti-Semitic attacks and incidents, including at a synagogue in Manchester and parts of London.
And there is this very uneasy feeling that criticism of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel and the Israeli government are being conflated with antisemitism.
That is, in part, why some people within Labour and other parties are saying it’s very important to make the distinction between criticizing Netanyahu’s government and its failure to do anything about the settler expansions in the occupied West Bank – to state clearly that this does not have anything to do with British Jews.
The fiercest fighting remains around Yemen’s Red Sea coast, which the Houthis are aiming to wrest from the Tareq Saleh-led National Resistance Forces [NRF] to clear their path to Bab al-Mandeb itself,” Baron told Al Jazeera, referring to the maritime strait that connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, and beyond it, to the Indian Ocean.
This all certainly has significant ramifications for Yemen’s decade-long conflict. But in the wake of the resumption of hostilities between the US and Iran, the fallout extends far from Yemen itself.
Undoubtedly, if the Houthis continue their march south, they’ll strengthen their ability to effectively shut down Red Sea shipping, a counterpoint to the ongoing blockages of the Strait of Hormuz that underline the way that the group has emerged as one of Tehran’s most valuable regional allies.
Oil prices rose to $100 (£74) a barrel on Wednesday, after the US and Iran attacked tankers in the Gulf region and Yemen’s Houthis hit oil facilities in Saudi Arabia.
Overnight, the US said it struck five Iranian tankers in retaliation for Iran’s targeting of a warship, while Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said they attacked eight tankers and two warships in response, as well as a US base in Jordan.
The Guards also said they planned a new “prohibited zone” for shipping that extended beyond the Strait of Hormuz into the Arabian Sea.
The Iran-backed Houthis reported dozens of Saudi strikes in Yemen, a day after drone and missile attacks caused fires at several oil facilities in Saudi Arabia.
However, Investor demand has also strengthened, with global gold-backed ETFs attracting $18 billion in August, their second-largest monthly inflow on record, the World Gold Council said. Holdings rose by 121 tonnes to a record 4,189 tonnes, while assets under management climbed 16% to $615 billion.
Markets are now focused on Thursday’s U.S. producer price index and Friday’s consumer price index ahead of the Fed’s policy meeting. Swaps markets are pricing in about a 65% probability of a rate hike this month.
North American funds recorded their third-largest monthly inflow on record, while European-listed funds posted their largest ever monthly inflow, the World Gold Council said.
