On Thursday, when the US-Iran conflict entered its 202nd day, President Donald Trump said the United States is “hopefully toward the end” of its war with Iran, claiming that he has directly spoken to officials in Tehran, raising the prospect of renewed diplomacy even as fighting has erupted in Yemen.
However, there is still no confirmation from Tehran that direct negotiations with Washington have resumed. Just a day earlier, a senior Iranian official publicly rejected talks unless Iran’s conditions were met. Tehran, which has, in effect, closed the Strait of Hormuz, has been demanding that the US honour the terms of the deal signed in June.
Trump’s comments come as the conflict has expanded into Yemen, putting increasing pressure on global energy supplies amid an Iran-imposed blockade of the strait through which a fifth of global oil and gas passes. crossed $100 per barrel last week and continue to rise as Iran-linked Houthis have damaged Saudi oil installations amid renewed fighting.
Undoubtedly, such shifts raise scepticism and generate a question on the current situation on geopolitical front that whether the war will end soon.
“Well, hopefully we are toward the end of the war,” he told reporters on Wednesday. “They want to make a deal. We’ll see how that works out.”
When asked by a reporter whether he had recently heard from the Iranian side, Trump said he had spoken with them “directly”.
The comments come after Trump on Monday said he was open to talks, and added that Iran “wants to make a deal, quickly and badly” and that he would decide whether Washington would engage with Tehran.
However, Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, accused Trump of sending “mixed signals” and said, “no talks until Iran’s conditions are met”.
Trump’s claim that he has heard from Iran “directly” is significant because negotiations between Washington and Tehran have repeatedly depended on intermediaries, including Qatar, Pakistan and Oman. This is not the first time that Trump has claimed direct communication with Iran.
On Thursday, Iran’s semi-official Tasnim news agency reported that Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi held a telephone call with Pakistani army chief Field Marshal Asim Munir, who has been leading the high-stakes diplomatic and mediation efforts between Washington and Tehran.
Araghchi held the phone call while still in Beijing, during which they discussed and consulted on the latest regional developments and issues of mutual interest, according to Tasnim.
A day earlier, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi called on the US and Iran to exercise restraint and “reopen the Strait of Hormuz at an early date”, following his meeting with Araghchi in Beijing.
Araghchi, in a statement after the meeting, said that Tehran seeks “the restoration of calm to the region and friendly and peaceful relations with our neighbours”.
“In this regard we have begun dialogue with the countries of the region,” he added.
On Thursday, futures moved in a tight range, after experiencing a sell-off yesterday as markets digested an interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve, while focus also remained on heightened tensions in the Middle East.
The Fed unanimously raised the federal funds rate by a quarter of a percentage point on Wednesday, delivering the increase markets had widely expected.
The Fed’s median projection for the policy rate at the end of 2026 rose to 4.1% from 3.8% previously, indicating support for additional rate increases. Markets interpreted the guidance as hawkish. fell across the curve after the decision, while the dollar strengthened.
Higher interest rates typically weigh on gold because bullion does not pay interest. A stronger dollar can also pressure the metal by making it more expensive for buyers using other currencies.
Undoubtedly, expectations for another Fed hike later this year, and a further 50 basis points of increases in the first half of 2027, have intensified the headwinds facing gold.
I find that the current decline could extend toward $4,200, with $4,000 the next major support area, as the fell on Wednesday after facing significant resistance at the 9 EMA ($4,407), and lost the day’s gain.
On Thursday, gold futures are facing significant resistance at the same levels today and look ready for a slide at 10:00 a.m., with the same speed as was seen yesterday, when gold futures slid steeply, as Fed Chair Kevin Warsh on Wednesday spooked some investors after highlighting elevated inflation risks, resulting in a negative session, but sentiment has bounced back as the uncertainty over the Fed’s decision is now in the rearview mirror.
From a technical perspective, gold futures need to reclaim their 200-day exponential moving average near $4,562.84 to signal that the pullback from the $4,688.89 high has ended and the broader uptrend has resumed.
Technical Levels to Watch
On a daily chart, after opening the day at $4,309.67, tested the day’s high at $4,423.30, and day’s low at $4,304.45, gold futures are trading at $4,407.40, just below the immediate resistance at the 9 EMA ($4,406.82), and just above the key support at $4,399.16, where a breakdown could push the futures to test the next key support at the100 EMA ($4,357.87) and the 50 EMA ($4,356), while both these Exponential Moving Averages along with 20 EMA ($4,494) and 9 EMA ($4,406) have come below the 200 EMA ($4,562), forming a “Bearish Crossover”, which confirms selling on every upward attempt.
On a 1-Hr. chart, after testing the day’s low at $4,304.45, gold futures are trying to sustain above the key resistance at the 200 EMA ($4,392.10), but are facing significant selling pressure at yesterday’s high at $4,413.28, after a steep fall was seen soon after the announcement of an interest rate hike.
I anticipate that gold futures are likely to repeat the same steep fall at any time today during the last hours if they continue to struggle at the same levels for some more time.
