Apple is positioned to deliver revenue upside when it reports fiscal first-quarter results Thursday, with Morgan Stanley expecting stronger-than-anticipated iPhone performance to offset near-term cost pressures. Wedbush Securities’ senior analyst Dan Ives recommends sticking with ahead of its Q1 earnings on January 29, and the company is broadly expected to post nearly 11% revenue growth to $138.47 billion, its largest year-on-year increase since 2022 driven by strong iPhone 17 demand. First-quarter earnings are also projected to hit a record $2.67 per share.
Ahead of the release, Apple stock trades at roughly twice its April 2025 price, reflecting cautious optimism after the company’s recent operational performance. In the prior quarter, Apple delivered resilient overall revenue and solid profitability despite ongoing softness in some hardware categories, setting a measured but positive backdrop for the upcoming results.
Key Highlights
- iPhone demand remains the central focus for January’s release, particularly in China where Apple faces pricing pressure and market-share challenges from local competitors. Investors will be watching whether recent promotions and product refreshes boosted holiday-quarter volumes and whether average selling prices held steady.
- The holiday quarter is typically Apple’s strongest for consumer electronics, driven by Christmas gift-buying, year-end spending and new product launches, which together usually generate a sizable share of the company’s annual revenue.
- Apple’s AI strategy is under scrutiny ahead of its fiscal first-quarter earnings on Thursday, with analysts highlighting memory costs, iPhone sales particularly in China and the company’s AI plans as key updates to watch, since clarity on these factors could affect margins and near-term performance. Some analysts also foresee a potential rally in Apple shares in the months ahead if the company shows encouraging AI progress and stronger-than-expected iPhone momentum.
- The company’s services segment is again expected to be the primary stabilizer and margin driver, with high-margin offerings subscriptions, payments and digital services, leveraging its large installed base to cushion earnings when device sales wane. Investors will closely track services growth and any management commentary on regulatory challenges, pricing power and user engagement, particularly in the US and Europe.
- The iPhone maker is expected to announce a formal partnership with Alphabet to integrate Gemini into its ecosystem this year. An arrangement Dan Ives calls a potential gamechanger for Apple’s AI roadmap while a major conversational overhaul of Siri, codenamed “Campos,” could roll out in spring, effectively transforming the assistant into a sophisticated chatbot powered by high-end LLMs.
Analysts Expectation
- Wedbush analysts reiterated their Outperform rating on Apple (AAPL) and maintained a $350.00 price target.
- JPMorgan raised its price target on Apple (AAPL) to $315 from $305 on Monday and reiterated an Overweight rating.
- Jefferies cut its price target on Apple (AAPL) to $276.47 from $283.36 while maintaining a Hold rating.
AAPL Q1 2026 earnings after-market (4:30 pm ET) Thursday January 29, 2026
Expected Move by Option Expiration
Options flow shows large net positive gamma at the 280 strike and a marginal net negative gamma at 240 for Jan 2026–Dec 2028 expiries. Option positions favor more call (bullish) than puts in the upcoming four expiries.
Technical Analysis Perspective
- AAPL formed a large rounding pattern on the weekly chart from Dec 2024 to Oct 2025.
- The pattern was bullish, leading to a rally to an all-time high of 288.62 in early Dec.
- A sharp sell-off followed after the stock failed to hold the prior high near 278, extending the correction to the Oct 2025 low of 244 (the starting point of the 288.62 rise).
- The corrective dip is viewed as a retest of that key level.
- Ideal scenario: stock decisively breaks 260 pre- or post-earnings and targets the 270–278 resistance zone.
- Alternate scenario: rejection at 260 sends prices back to 244; a swift, sustained break below 244 would trigger further declines.
- Overall, options traders and Wall Street analysts remain broadly confident in a post-earnings rally.
Weekly Candlestick Chart
AAPL Seasonality Chart:
Since 2007, AAPL has seen January close with 1.7% drop in 45% of years and February with a 1.9% gain in 53% of years.
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