- Geopolitical tensons have intensified as President Trump pushes forward with threats to impose tariffs on eight NATO allies amid his pursuit of Greenland.
- While broader markets have dipped these tensions could drive increased defense spending, resource reshoring, and infrastructure development.
- Below we highlight 5 U.S.-based companies poised to benefit from escalating U.S.-NATO tensions.
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With rising US-NATO tensions over new tariffs and Greenland’s strategic resources, defense, mining, and industrial stocks are primed for a major rally.
Amid this backdrop, five stocks stand out: Lockheed Martin (NYSE:), Rtx (NYSE:), Critical Metals (NASDAQ:), Teck Resources (NYSE:), and Caterpillar (NYSE:). Each of these companies is positioned to gain from heightened U.S. military budgets, Arctic resource competition, and supply chain shifts away from Europe and China.
1. Lockheed Martin – The Arctic Defense Leader
Lockheed Martin stands positioned as perhaps the greatest beneficiary of escalating US-NATO tensions, particularly regarding Greenland’s strategic importance and the resulting Arctic defense requirements that demand sophisticated military systems and surveillance capabilities.
The company’s F-35 fighter jets and missile defense and radar technologies like the “Golden Dome” are critical for Arctic operations, where Greenland’s strategic location enhances U.S. surveillance and deterrence against Russian and Chinese incursions.
Source: InvestingPro
In 2026 so far, LMT shares have climbed about 19% year-to-date, fueled by President Trump’s proposed $1.5 trillion defense budget for 2027, which promises larger procurement deals.
If geopolitical tensions stay elevated, markets often reward predictable cash flows and long-term contracts. As such, Lockheed’s backlog, high free cash flow, and steady dividend make it a classic “geopolitical hedge” stock.
2. RTX – Aerospace & Missile Demand Boost
RTX, formerly Raytheon, emerges as a critical beneficiary through its comprehensive defense technology portfolio that addresses the complex requirements of Arctic operations. Its missile defense and advanced radar systems are essential for monitoring and protecting strategic territories like Greenland.
The company’s Patriot missile defense system gains renewed importance as nations seek proven defensive capabilities that can operate in extreme weather conditions while providing protection against sophisticated threats.
Source: InvestingPro
RTX stock has risen approximately 7% YTD in 2026, building on a 60% gain in 2025, with a record $251 billion backlog supporting momentum.
For the remainder of 2026, RTX is appealing thanks to surging orders from the Middle East, inclusion in top defense ETFs, and an estimated 20% earnings growth.
3. Critical Metals – Greenland’s Rare Earth Bonanza
Critical Metals owns the Tanbreez project, the world’s largest non-Chinese rare earth deposit in Greenland, directly tying it to U.S. acquisition ambitions. Tensions could accelerate U.S. efforts to secure these minerals, which are vital for defense tech like missiles and EVs, reducing China’s dependency and boosting CRML’s strategic value.
Furthermore, the company’s rare earth processing technology and North American operational focus position it to benefit from government policies supporting domestic critical materials production and strategic stockpile development.
Source: InvestingPro
CRML has skyrocketed almost 150% so far in 2026, driven by high-grade drilling results and approval for its Greenland pilot plant.
It’s a high-reward buy for 2026, with potential to control 50% of the Western rare earth market.
Despite volatility, secured offtakes and U.S. security focus suggest continued upside, trading at a 22% NPV discount.
4. Teck Resources – Metals & Mining Powerhouse
Teck Resources is a major diversified miner with exposure to steelmaking coal, copper, zinc, and other key industrial metals. While not purely Arctic-focused, Teck’s portfolio sits squarely in the “strategic raw materials” category for infrastructure, defense, and energy transition.
If 2026 is characterized by strong commodity demand, decarbonization investments, and geopolitical competition, diversified miners like TECK can see both price and volume tailwinds.
Source: InvestingPro
TECK has gained around 5% so far in the year-to-date, reaching new 52-week highs amid copper price surges and sector rotation.
Looking ahead, TECK is compelling as a copper pure-play, with an Anglo American merger creating a top-five producer, $800 million synergies, and AI-driven demand.
Analysts target $80–90 per share, supported by structural supply deficits and sustained commodity demand.
5. Caterpillar – Infrastructure & Arctic Expansion
Caterpillar emerges as a significant beneficiary through its heavy machinery and construction equipment essential for Arctic infrastructure development, military base construction, and mining operations.
The company’s specialized cold-weather equipment and Arctic-capable machinery position it uniquely to support infrastructure development in Greenland and other Arctic territories that gain strategic importance during geopolitical tensions.
Source: InvestingPro
CAT has advanced about 10% YTD in 2026, following a 58% run in 2025, with a record $39.9 billion backlog.
It’s a strong hold for 2026, with 20.5% EPS growth projected, benefits from the U.S. Infrastructure Act, and AI data center buildouts.
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Disclosure: This is not financial advice. Always conduct your own research.
At the time of writing, I am long on the S&P 500, and the Nasdaq 100 via the SPDR® S&P 500 ETF, and the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF. I am also long on the Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF. I regularly rebalance my portfolio of individual stocks and ETFs based on ongoing risk assessment of both the macroeconomic environment and companies’ financials.
The views discussed in this article are solely the opinion of the author and should not be taken as investment advice.
Follow Jesse Cohen on X/Twitter @JesseCohenInv for more stock market analysis and insight.
