Based on an analysis of and silver futures as of Wednesday, both metals appear likely to decline from current levels. This assessment is informed by ongoing uncertainty in the United States resulting from the partial government shutdown, which began last Saturday.
The lack of resolution, following the White House’s rejection of the latest congressional proposal concerning federal immigration agent limits, has prolonged the closure of the Department of Homeland Security and underscores the persistent political impasse.
I find that this could extend the probabilities of any immediate action on Iran, while the issue remains unresolved even after the second round of talks between the diplomats of the U.S. and Iran after a three-hour-long meeting about Tehran’s nuclear program on Tuesday, with the Iranian foreign minister offering a vague but positive assessment of the talks.
Though the U.S. officials did not immediately comment on the meeting in Geneva, it was not immediately clear when the sides would meet again.
Undoubtedly, this could be encouraging for the bears to sell these bouncing moves that appear amid surging indecisiveness on this issue, as a further stretching of this partial government shutdown could not only delay economic data this week but also any constructive decision on the Iran issue.
Inversely, the bullish moves in the absence of economic data could exist like previously in October 2025, when the government shutdown was stretched up to 43 days, and during this period, gold and silver futures tested fresh peaks, followed by sharp sell-offs.
Investors appear cautious about a surge, given the lack of supportive news flow in the near future. As a result, technical bounces frequently trigger sudden selling sprees.
Technical Levels to Watch
In a daily chart, gold futures, after opening the day at $4,876.41, tested the day’s high at $5,029.31 and day’s low at $4,875.50, are trading at $5020, and are finding it difficult to hold above the immediate support at the 9 EMA ($4,991).
Undoubtedly, a breakdown below this immediate support could push the futures to defend the next support at the 20 EMA ($4,938), where a breakdown could push the futures to test the significant support at the 50 EMA ($4,706) this week.
Inversely, only a sustainable move above the immediate resistance at $5,069.66 could sustain this uptrend.
In a 1-Hr. chart, gold futures, after finding support at $4,868, started this uptrend, are trying to sustain above the significant support at the 200 EMA ($4,991.85). However, if the bearish engulfing at the current level pushes the futures once again into the bearish territory below the 200 EMA on an hourly chart.
Undoubtedly, it will be interesting to see how long the gold futures sustain above this significant support while the preliminary signs of exhaustion have started to pop up.
Silver
In a daily chart, silver futures, after opening the day at $72.320, tested the day’s high at $78.247 and the day’s low at $72.320, are trading at $77.945, just trying to hold the immediate support at the 50 EMA ($75.755) but still facing significant resistance at the 9 EMA ($78.834) which has come below the 20 EMA ($81.456), forming a bearish crossover above the head.
This formation could keep today’s reversal from the day’s low in check; I observe that any attempt to test the resistances above at the 9 EMA and 20 EMA could trigger a selling spree.
Inversely, only a sustainable move above the 20 EMA could sustain the bullish momentum intact.
In 1-Hr. chart, silver futures are trading below the 200 EMA ($78.924) since January 30, 2026, indicating the long persistence of silver futures inside a bearish territory, despite making bullish attempts.
I find that in such a scenario, any attempt by the silver futures to sustain above this significant resistance at the 200 EMA could trigger a sell-off.
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Disclaimer: Readers are advised to take any position in gold and silver at their own risk, as this analysis is based only on observations.
