Why do we never get an answer when we’re knocking at the door? With a thousand million questions, about hate and death and war. Oil markets are stuck as they await the answers to the question about hate, death war and whether the Trump Administration will make a deal with the Iranian regime that slaughtered their own people for a potential greater good of avoided all-out war. Traders will be fixed for the meeting Thursday between Jared Kushner adviser to the President and special envoy Steve Witkoff Trump’s special envoy and Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and other Iranian negotiators to see if a deal can be made to avert a conflict.
As for President Trump, he is keeping everyone guessing which is classic Trump. Yesterday he said that “Everything that has been written about a potential War with Iran has been written incorrectly, and purposefully so.” “I am the one that makes the decision, I would rather have a Deal than not but, if we don’t make a Deal, it will be a very bad day for that Country and, very sadly, its people, because they are great and wonderful, and something like this should never have happened to them.”
Regarding General Dan Caine (full name John Daniel “Razin” Caine) the current Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, President Trump said that He “would like not to see War but, if a decision is made on going against Iran at a Military level, it is his opinion that it will be something easily won.” Trump added that Caine “has not spoken of not doing Iran, or even the fake limited strikes that I have been reading about,” and would “be leading the pack” if ordered to act.
And if the war is easily won then get prepared for a massive pop the drop in prices If the regime falls quickly and oil infrastructure is not harmed and Iran fails to have the ability to follow through on their threat, we should get a ‘peace dividend” that will send oil below $60 a barrel WTI . Of course, that may be after we spike into the mid $70 a barrel area first. On the flip side of that if Iran puts up a fight and is able to disrupt oil shipments that range on the upside potentially cut be higher. But I would agree with General Caine that Iran probably will lose the war quickly.
Of course after winning the war there’s always the aftermath to worry about we know that in Iraq we made some mistakes early on that led to a much longer conflict in Iraq then had to happen in Venezuela the precise military action to remove Maduro and allow the regime to stay in power temporarily during the transition probably avoided a larger conflict. If the Regime falls in Iran what is the plan to fill the power void. That will be the challenge and may then cause oil prices to rebound after what should be a celebratory post-tack price crash.
The President State of the Union should highlight the state of the America Energy union which is strong with the President Trump’s achievements in U.S. energy production, lower gas prices, speedy permitting, record LNG exports, and plans to meet surging AI and data center power demand.
Under President Trump, despite lower prices America has achieved all-time highs in oil and output. U.S. crude oil production reached over 13.6 million barrels per day in 2025—the highest ever—while natural gas production hit record levels around 110 billion cubic feet per day, solidifying U.S. energy dominance and leading the world.
That has lowered gas prices for American families as gasoline prices have fallen to multi-year lows, averaging around $2.80–$2.90 per gallon—a significant drop from prior highs, saving families hundreds of dollars annually and putting more money back in American pockets.
Trump sent a signal to US oil and gas producers that the policy of demonizing them like the prior administration was over removing the ridicules red tape and encouraging speedy permitting and deregulation.
Trumps administration has dramatically accelerated approvals, with over 6,000 Applications for Permits to Drill (APDs) approved on federal lands—more than in recent years—and a 55–63% increase in drilling permits compared to the previous administration, cutting red tape to unleash American energy faster.
Biden tried to slow LNG exports because a social influencer wanted him.
HE threw our allies under the bus not to mention US oil and gas workers, time and time again. Under Trump he has historic LNG export records — President Trump ended prior restrictions on Day One, leading to record U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports—surpassing 100 million metric tons in a single year for the first time ever, with averages rising to 15 billion cubic feet per day in 2025 (up significantly from prior levels).
This strengthens U.S. geopolitical influence, supports allies, and boosts economic prosperity.
Trump also understand that meeting AI and energy needs is crucial for our country’s future. His energy plan—expanding production, streamlining permits, and boosting LNG—ensures reliable, affordable supply to support AI growth, keep costs low, and create high paying jobs.
And what about the doom and gloom report about AI that sank stocks yesterday? A new book Featured on Zero Hedge had an interesting take on that called ‘CODE RED:’ Inside the Left’s 2026 Strategy to Weaponize AI Job Loss Fears Before the Midterm Elections.
They write that “over the next nine months leading up to the 2026 midterm elections, Americans should expect a torrent of messaging designed to heighten anxiety over real and perceived AI job losses, a plan left-leaning globalist billionaires hope will sour voters’ economic outlook and help Democrats return to power.
The political playbook has three parts: Convince Americans that mass AI job loss is inevitable.
Channel that fear and ennui into galvanizing support for Universal Basic Income (UBI) redistribution in the long-term.
Co-opt populist concerns over AI data centers driving up electricity and water bills for everyday Americans in the short-term.
The strategy, years in the making, is backed by hundreds of millions of dollars of left-leaning Silicon Valley cash and a sprawling ecosystem of advocacy groups and nonprofits, The three-pronged approach to create fear and uncertainty is already kicking into high gear.
That put that bearish analysis from Citrini Research on the possible risks to the global economy from AI with a bunch of negative hypothetical scenarios that portrayed doom for the US jobs market and economy. The Citrini Research piece titled “The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis” (published Feb 22, 2026, as a hypothetical “macro memo” dated June 2028) sparked quite the stir over triggering an “AI scare trade” selloff in software, payments, delivery stocks, and even broader indices on Monday. It’s explicitly not a base-case forecast or prediction; the authors call it a thought experiment exploring an underexplored “left-tail” risk: What if AI succeeds wildly on productivity and agentic capabilities… but that very success becomes profoundly bearish for the human-driven economy?
Give me a break AI “exceeds expectations” on agentic automation — Sure, autonomous agents chew through white-collar drudgery faster than anyone modeled. But that means productivity skyrockets, margins fatten… but only if you ignore that every past tech wave (internet, mobile, cloud) eventually created more net jobs and spending than it destroyed. This assumes zero offsetting boom in new human-centric demand—energy transition alone could spawn trillions in real-economy capex that AI can’t fully replace. I could go on but lets get back to energy
Zerohedge also reported that Ukraine’s long-range drone campaign has reportedly once again struck at the heart of Russia’s energy artery, igniting a fire at a key Transneft oil pumping station in the republic of Tatarstan early Monday. Regional officials confirmed the incident after local media and Telegram channels first reported explosions near the strategic facility, with authorities announcing: “as a result of falling drone debris, a local fire broke out in an industrial zone.”
Nat gas March is rolling over to April on the weak side as Fox Weather reports that millions dig out from the deadly 2026 blizzard as records fall, including 37.9″ in Rhode Island. With 2 dead and 375,000 without power, recovery begins even as a new clipper system threatens more snow this week. The winter blast caused hundreds of thousands of power outages in states like Massachusetts, with utilities like Eversource and National Grid heavily impacted. While primarily from wind/snow down lines, cold weather boosts gas demand and can indirectly strain the system.
During the recent bomb cyclone, natural gas prices in the Northeast spiked sharply.
While the Henry Hub benchmark price dropped, local prices jumped—averaging about $8.19 per MMBtu by midday on February 23, which was a jump of over $2.30 compared to earlier levels. In the Boston area, prices at Algonquin Citygate were lower in some reports (around $1.57 to $2.38 per MMBtu on February 24 for non-congested routes), but the market was volatile, especially for future contracts.
The storm caused a surge in demand, pushing up spot prices. In New York, the Transco Zone 6 area—which often sees higher prices during cold snaps—also saw an increase, although this storm wasn’t as extreme as past events where prices soared to over $100 per MMBtu. Looking at the bigger picture, futures for March delivery (like the NYMEX Henry Hub contract) climbed by 1–3% or more, reaching highs between $3.09 and $3.25 per MMBtu during the storm, marking the highest prices in a week as demand surged, but plunged yesterday.
