According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the headline U.S. consumer price index () slipped 0.4% M/M, representing the largest one-month decrease since April 2020. , which strips out volatile food and energy components, was flat in June after rising 0.2% M/M in May. Economists had expected the headline CPI to fall 0.1% and the core CPI to rise 0.3%.
On a Y/Y basis in June, headline CPI ticked up 3.5%, and core CPI increased 2.6%. Both figures were lower than the estimates for a rise of 3.8% and 2.9%, respectively, and decelerated from May.
Despite escalating headlines out of the Gulf- where the U.S. military conducted further strikes following President Donald Trump’s reinstatement of an Iranian naval shipping blockade and a 20% cargo fee on the Strait of Hormuz – investors have consistently looked past regional instability.
Instead, a laser focus on resilient economic data and corporate margins has repeatedly insulated the equity rally from geopolitical panics. However, this dynamic means corporate fundamentals face asymmetric pressure this quarter.
Undoubtedly, a strong reversal by gold futures sounds quite positive, but profound fatigue from intermittent geopolitical flare-ups.
reacted inversely after the CPI data was announced, despite testing Monday’s lows, but faced significant resistance just below yesterday’s tested high at $4,112.06, just below the immediate resistance at the 9 EMA ($4,098), from where significant bearish pressure was exerted, and now the futures are trading at $4,070.
Undoubtedly, a breakdown below the key support at $4,030 could extend bearish pressure, as oil prices have extended gains in today’s session, after posting their biggest one-day rally in months, as investors remained on edge over escalating U.S.-Iran tensions and the potential impact of Washington’s renewed maritime blockade on Iranian shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
As of 06:59 ET (10:59 GMT), expiring in September rose 4.5% to $87.08 a barrel, while climbed 3.5% to $80.91 a barrel.
Both benchmarks had surged nearly 10% in the previous session to their highest levels in about a month after the U.S. announced fresh measures targeting Iran’s maritime exports.
The latest gains followed President Donald Trump’s announcement that the United States would reinstate a naval blockade on Iran after renewed military exchanges with Tehran.
Trump also said Washington would collect a 20% charge on cargo moving through the Strait of Hormuz to cover security costs.
The U.S. military said it would begin enforcing the blockade from Tuesday, targeting vessel traffic linked to Iran while allowing neutral commercial shipping to continue through the waterway.
Undoubtedly, the scale of the proposed charges underscored why control of the Strait had become such a critical issue for markets, although the question is whether the policy would remain in its current form.
I find that if gold futures break below the next key support at $3,992.11 before today’s close, the slide could remain steeper this week, and gold futures could hit the defined target at $3,834.55, even before the defined deadline of July 20, 2026.
