Oil prices are down around $5 following reports that the Trump administration sent a 15-point peace plan to end the war, which has been received by the Iranians this morning that if Iran accepts would be a major victory for the world thanks to the US military.
The whole peace plan really comes on the heels of the Trump Administration’s 48-hour ultimatum, which pushed Iran into some pretty extreme threats—what the UAE even called “eco-terrorism.”
Iran’s response to President Trump’s ultimatum was just threats about hitting back at their old allies and targeting critical energy infrastructure, which only made things more tense.
They even floated the idea of charging a $2 million fee for every ship passing through the Strait of Hormuz but only letting through countries they consider friendly and threatened at the same time to mine the international Waterway. . Unsurprisingly, China’s not happy about any of this—the longer the Strait stays closed, the more it hurts their economy, and the pressure is really building.
While China response to the war has been described as firm but measured/muted and just using strong rhetorical criticism of the US and Israel without direct personal attacks on leaders like Trump, and no indication of military involvement or major material support for Iran. Beijing has to prioritize its own energy security because the Strait of Hormuz is critical for their economy.
This is quite a change from President Trump’s 48-hour deadline that turned into a five-day deadline and now turns into a peace plan. Although the entire official document detailing all 15 points has not been made publicly available, reports have covered 14 of the US demands which includes strict requirements for Iran, which are closely linked to notable concessions from the American side.
First and foremost, Iran is required to dismantle its entire nuclear program and firmly pledge that it will never seek or develop nuclear weapons.
This includes a permanent halt on all uranium enrichment within Iranian borders and the handing over of its existing stockpile of enriched uranium—including highly enriched materials—to the International Atomic Energy Agency, most likely in a phased process.
This wasn’t a new demand—it’s something the Trump Administration had been insisting on even before the war began. Back then, Iranian officials told U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff and his team, without hesitation and even a bit of pride, “we control roughly 460 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium.” They didn’t try to hide it at all, even adding that this amount could be used to make 11 nuclear bombs.
The US is also demanding that Iran must also shut down or dismantle major nuclear facilities such as Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan. These sites form the core infrastructure of Iran’s uranium enrichment and nuclear material production program, which the US (along with Israel and other allies) views as a direct threat to regional and global security.
Additionally, the plan calls for strict limitations on Iran’s ballistic missile development and a complete cessation of support for regional proxy groups and militias like Hezbollah and Hamas.
Yet for oil the crucial element is the guarantee of safe and unrestricted passage for international shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, effectively reopening it to all vessels. A potential game-changing event for oil.
If Iran agrees to these terms, all U.S. sanctions would be lifted and a total U.S. victory with almost all of the U.S. military objectives met.
Yet at the same time, we hope it lays the groundwork for real change in the Iranian regime that brutally slaughtered its own people. The Wall Street Journal reports that “ Unless peace talks pan out fast, traders say record high prices for specific grades of Middle Eastern crude cargoes will soon cascade to the U.S. and elsewhere.”
They report that the Strait of Hormuz shutdown has forced Asian refineries to pay as much as $160 per barrel for oil from the UAE—significantly higher than global market rates. Dubai crude prices have surged by over 150% in 2026, and have climbed 64% for the year through Monday. JPMorgan Chase estimates the closure has cut daily oil supply by 16 million barrels as of Monday.
The Journal writes that “There are other large distortions. Brent crude, the global benchmark reflecting prices for oil pumped in Europe, trades at a historically wide $12 per barrel premium over the WTI American benchmark, traded in Cushing, Okla. The difference, traders say, can be chalked up to WTI’s location, far from where the oil is needed in Asia. Its lower price also reflects the higher shipping costs required to get it to Asian buyers, as well as angst that the U.S. might restrict crude exports to husband energy resources at home. Asian refiners are hunting for sulfur-rich oil to replace the Middle Eastern grades that are getting prohibitively expensive, driving up prices for oil from Norway, Russia, Colombia and even some crude from the U.S. Cargoes are diverting from Europe to Asia, where the shock from the Persian Gulf is most acute and traders can earn a premium.
Refinery trouble was also in play yesterday, and things got pretty heated in Moscow—literally. Reports say a fire broke out at Russia’s Ust-Luga port, a key player in oil exports, after Ukraine launched a major drone attack. Ukraine has really ramped up these strikes lately, zeroing in on Russian refineries and oil routes in a bid to put a dent in Russia’s war machine. The Ust-Luga and Primorsk facilities, both sitting on the Gulf of Finland, had to put a pause on shipping oil and crude after Sunday’s drone hits. But, according to Reuters, they managed to get loading operations back up and running again by Monday.
An explosion and ongoing fire at have caused gas and diesel futures to rise sharply Tuesday, compounding increases driven by the war in Iran. The company has not yet issued a statement. Rumors that is was caused by Iran were widely dismissed
We also saw reports that the Israeli Air Force took out two key naval cruise missile production sites in Iran this should limit the ability of the Iranian regime to develop and manufacture of long-range naval cruise missiles capable of destroying targets at sea and land. Another reason why Iran better agre to this deal.
The United Arab Emirates as I mentioned condemned Iran’s attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz as economic terrorism, with the CEO of state-owned Abu Dhabi National Oil Company saying no country should be allowed to hold the waterway hostage. Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, CEO of Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, said weaponizing the Strait of Hormuz is an act of aggression against every nation in the world. “It is economic terrorism against every nation, and no country should be allowed to hold Hormuz hostage — not now, not ever,” Al Jaber said. When he is right, he is correct.
We need to brace for continued volatility, though signs of improvement are emerging. If you believe Iran will accept the deal, consider preparing with strategies like put options or short positions. However, if negotiations stall, oil prices could retest highs, especially as managing prices through the Strait of Hormuz becomes increasingly challenging over time. Let’s face it, we’ve never seen anything like this before, and let’s hope we put an end to it so we never have to see it again.
is in shoulder-season slumber as Fox Weather is reporting mild conditions again this week. We’re now firmly in the spring shoulder period, where heating demand has largely faded but cooling demand hasn’t yet kicked in — keeping overall U.S. consumption relatively subdued. Natural gas storage levels look good. According to the latest government report, there are currently 1,883 billion cubic feet of gas stored as of March 13. This is up by 35 billion cubic feet compared to last week, which is the first time this season we’ve seen an increase, although the market expected a slightly bigger jump. Compared to last year, storage is up by 177 billion cubic feet, and it’s also 47 billion cubic feet above the five-year average for this time of year. This early move to adding gas into storage is mostly because of the mild weather we’ve been experiencing lately. The next storage update comes out tomorrow, and experts think there might be a small withdrawal of gas, but if the warm temperatures stick around, we could see another increase.
As for natural gas prices, they’re staying steady. The main U.S. benchmark, Henry Hub, is trading between $2.85 and $2.95 per million BTUs this morning, which is just a bit lower than yesterday. Prices have been mostly flat lately, only moving temporarily when big news about world events or LNG comes up. The market is calm because there’s plenty of gas being produced, and demand for heating and electricity hasn’t been very strong thanks to the mild weather.
Fox Weather forecasters are showing a continued mild/spring-like pattern across much of the Lower 48 this week — cooler in spots on the East Coast but overall well above normal in key population centers. That’s keeping res/com demand soft and delaying the usual late-winter withdrawal pace. The bottom line is a bit boring, with inventories in decent shape heading into full injection season. Without a sustained cold snap or major LNG/export disruption, natural gas looks set to stay in this low-volatility “shoulder slumber” for the near term.
