- Middle East tensions pushed oil up 7%, triggering risk aversion and Bitcoin drop to $63,000.
- Regulatory progress and strong ETF inflows led by BlackRock helped Bitcoin recover toward $74,000.
- Whales accumulated over 13,000 BTC as markets await US jobs data for direction.
had a very volatile start to the first week of March 2026. At the start of the week, rising tensions linked to the war in the Middle East pushed oil prices up by about 7%. This made investors more cautious and reduced interest in risky assets, causing Bitcoin to fall to around $63,000.
The market soon recovered from this shock. As confidence returned, Bitcoin gained support from its image as a form of “digital gold,” and its price climbed back to around $73,000 to $74,000.
Regulatory Reforms and Institutional Flow
One of the key factors shaping the market this week came from legal developments in the US. Progress on the CLARITY Act, which aims to clarify rules for digital assets, and the GENIUS Act, which focuses on supporting innovation and economic security in the crypto sector, signaled that long-standing regulatory uncertainty could soon ease.
This growing confidence showed up in spot ETF flows. Funds tracking Bitcoin attracted strong institutional interest. Led by , around $1 billion of fresh capital flowed into the market during the first few days of the week. On March 2 alone, ETFs recorded net inflows of about $458 million, suggesting that large investors view current price levels as an attractive entry point.
What is the Status of On-Chain Data and Market Psychology?
On the blockchain side, the market also saw strong activity. When Bitcoin moved above $71,000, around $110 million worth of short positions were liquidated. This forced buying added more momentum to the price rise.
Interestingly, even with the price increase, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index stayed in the “Extreme Fear” zone at 19. This suggests that many retail investors remain cautious.
At the same time, large holders known as whales continued to accumulate. Wallets holding between 100,000 and 1 million BTC added about 13,460 BTC since the end of February, showing growing confidence among major investors.
Critical Data Day: Non-Farm Payrolls
Today could bring one of the most important tests of the week for Bitcoin.
Investors are closely watching the upcoming , which will be released around the opening of US markets. Market expectations suggest that non-agricultural employment may rise by about 54,000 to 58,000 jobs.
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Bullish scenario: If job growth stays below 40,000, markets may expect the Federal Reserve to speed up interest rate cuts. That could support a move in Bitcoin toward the $75,000 resistance level.
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Bearish scenario: If the data comes in at 80,000 or higher, the stronger could pressure Bitcoin and pull the price back to the $65,000–$68,000 range.
The Consumer Price Index data due on March 11 will also play an important role next week. It will show whether inflation remains stubbornly high and could shape the market’s direction over the medium term, including for Bitcoin.x`x
Bitcoin Technical Outlook
On the daily chart, Bitcoin rebounded from the Fibonacci 1.272 support level near $62,811 after a sharp decline over the past month. This level appears to have acted as a bottom where buyers stepped back into the market.
The price is now trying to hold above the $70,000 range. If the upcoming employment data comes in below expectations and supports a bullish reaction, the next major resistance could appear around $76,000 to $78,000. Moving back above this zone would help offset the selling pressure seen earlier in February.
If Bitcoin breaks through this resistance, the $80,000 to $83,500 range may become the next psychological barrier. This area aligns with the three-month EMA and represents an important level for confirming a potential trend reversal. A sustained move above it could strengthen the path toward $100,000.
At the moment, Bitcoin trades above short-term EMA levels, which supports the current positive momentum. The Stochastic RSI has moved into the overbought zone, suggesting that the price may continue rising. At the same time, as Bitcoin approaches the $76,000 resistance, a short period of consolidation or sideways movement could occur. If the price falls back below the EMA support levels, the Stochastic RSI may turn downward again and strengthen the signal for a potential decline.
Short-Term Support Levels for Bitcoin
As of now, the 8-day and 21-day EMA levels around $69,000 form the closest support for Bitcoin. This level also marks the upper boundary of a broader support range between $55,000 and $69,000.
If the upcoming Nonfarm Payrolls data comes in stronger than expected, for example, above $80,000, Bitcoin could face renewed pressure. In that case, the price may retreat toward the $65,000 area.
Below $65,000, the $62,811 Fibonacci 1.272 level remains a key support. A daily close under this level would weaken the current technical outlook and could give sellers stronger control of the market. This scenario would raise the chances of a further decline toward $55,000.
Summing Up!
The current technical outlook suggests that Bitcoin is in a short term rally moving toward the $76,300 resistance level, supported by the $62,800 base.
For the upward momentum to continue, Bitcoin needs to hold above $72,000. Staying above this level would keep the bullish trend intact.
However, if the price closes below the $69,400 average, the mini rally could lose strength, and the bullish setup may weaken. Levels below this threshold could therefore act as stop loss or profit-taking zones for traders managing risk.
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Disclaimer: This article is written for informational purposes only. It does not intend to encourage the purchase of any asset in any way, nor does it constitute a solicitation, offer, recommendation, or suggestion to invest. I would like to remind you that all assets are evaluated from multiple perspectives and are highly risky, and therefore any investment decision and the associated risk belong to the investor. Additionally, we do not provide any investment advisory services.
