Goldman Sachs has once again revised its oil price outlook, now expecting to trade at $71 per barrel in the final quarter of the year, and to average $67 per barrel over the same period, Reuters reported, citing the bank’s analysts.
The investment bank’s earlier price outlook saw Brent crude at $66 per barrel in the last quarter of 2026 and WTI at $62 per barrel. At the moment, Brent crude is hovering around $100 per barrel, and WTI is above $90 per barrel.
Goldman’s revision was based on an assumption that oil flows via the Strait of Hormuz would be severely constrained, averaging just 10% of pre-war levels, for a period of 21 days, followed by a month of gradual recovery. In their previous update, Goldman analysts had assumed a disruption lasting only 10 days.
Earlier this week, the International Energy Agency’s members agreed to make an emergency release of crude from inventories to stabilize prices, at an all-time high of 400 million barrels. Goldman analysts had modeled a release of some 254 million barrels plus 31 million barrels from Russia. Such a release, according to the analysts, would reduce the blow to global oil supply by 50%.
The news about the planned release initially pressured oil prices but those quickly rebounded as reports from the Middle East seem to suggest that the war could drag on, straining global oil supply further. The latest updates coming from the war zone mention Iran targeting ships, with Reuters reporting Wednesday that six vessels have been targeted so far, including two tankers off the Iraqi coast. Following the strikes, Iraq has shut down all of its oil export terminals.
The report added, citing unnamed sources, that the U.S. Navy has repeatedly refused to provide an escort to vessels, saying that the risk of new strikes is too high for the moment.
