At the upcoming on 29 July 2026, the Federal Reserve is widely expected to keep unchanged. According to the latest CME FedWatch probabilities, market participants assign more than a 70% chance that the Fed will leave rates on hold, suggesting that the decision itself is unlikely to deliver a major surprise.
However, the primary focus is not the July decision itself, but the policy guidance that follows. Investors will closely monitor whether the probability of a rate hike at the 16 September meeting remains near 57%. The Fed’s statement and forward guidance could provide important clues regarding the future path of US monetary policy and whether additional tightening remains under consideration.
Fundamental Drivers
Overall, US economic fundamentals remain relatively resilient. Inflation continues to move closer to the Federal Reserve’s target, supported by lower energy prices and easing core inflation pressures. Nevertheless, Core PCE remains above the Fed’s 2% target, while labour market conditions and economic growth remain relatively strong. This combination supports the case for the Federal Reserve to keep rates unchanged at the current meeting while maintaining the flexibility to adopt a more hawkish stance should inflationary pressures re-emerge in the coming months.
Technical AnalysisUS 10-Year Treasury Yield & 
The US 10-Year Treasury Yield and the US Dollar Index (DXY) continue to display a bullish bias on the daily timeframe, with both markets trading above their 20-day and 50-day moving averages. This suggests that the medium-term uptrend remains intact. recently posted a fresh 2026 high near 4.72% before entering a corrective phase; however, as long as yields remain above the 20-day and 50-day moving averages, the broader upside structure remains valid.
Meanwhile, DXY continues to maintain a higher-high and higher-low market structure and remains near a key resistance area around 101.50. Although bullish momentum has slowed ahead of the FOMC decision, the index remains supported by expectations that US interest rates could stay elevated for longer. Overall, both US10Y and DXY continue to reflect relatively tight financial conditions.
– Daily & 4-Hour 
On the daily timeframe, gold remains in a bearish market structure as price continues to trade below both the 20-day and 50-day Simple Moving Averages (SMA). Following several weeks of consolidation, price is once again testing a major support zone around 3,960–4,000. As long as gold remains below the 20-day SMA, selling pressure is likely to persist and downside risks remain elevated. A confirmed breakdown below the current support area could open the door for a move toward the next key support level at 3,886. Conversely, a daily close above the 20-day SMA would signal a potential loss of bearish momentum and could trigger a recovery toward the 4,215 resistance zone, which is closely aligned with the 50-day SMA acting as dynamic resistance.
On the 4-hour timeframe, the market structure also remains bearish, with price trading below both the 20-period and 50-period SMAs. After failing to sustain its previous recovery attempt, gold has returned to test short-term support levels. As long as price remains below these moving averages, any upside movement is likely to be viewed as a technical pullback within the broader downtrend. A decisive breakdown below the current support zone could accelerate bearish momentum and increase the probability of a move toward 3,886. However, if price manages to reclaim both the 20-period and 50-period SMAs and maintain acceptance above them, the likelihood of a rebound toward the 4,215 resistance area would increase significantly.
Conclusion
With market expectations heavily skewed towards a rate hold, the key driver of post-FOMC price action is likely to be the Federal Reserve’s guidance rather than the interest-rate decision itself. Inflation has improved but remains above target, while labour market conditions and economic growth continue to demonstrate resilience. At the same time, both US Treasury yields and the US dollar maintain a bullish technical structure, limiting the upside potential for gold. As a result, a hold with hawkish guidance remains the most likely scenario and could continue to favour the US dollar while keeping gold under short-term pressure.
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Disclaimer : This report is provided for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, financial guidance, or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. All investment decisions and associated risks remain the sole responsibility of the reader. Financial markets are inherently volatile, and past performance does not guarantee future results.
