Upon evaluating the movements of and futures on different time chart patterns, I observed that surging worries on energy crises extend the inflationary pressure with stagnant growth, which is likely to push the precious metals back to test the lows seen in April 2025, once again in April 2026.
Now, trade tariff worries have taken a back seat since the inception of the U.S.-Israel war with Iran, where the escalation probabilities are surging day by day, as not even the directly involved countries are facing heavy losses financially, along with other permanent assets, especially energy.
But despite this, de-escalation attempts are far away from initiation, even by the countries which are not involved, while equally facing the denting impact of this war, a result of the egoistic attitude of only two persons – U.S. President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, who not only initiated this war on March 2, but also compelled the U.S. to get involved in this war.
Despite repeated self-proclaimed winning this war, both President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu have become almost regulars when they announce that they have won the war, leading to gold and silver selling sprees as both have lost the war premium that they felt since the beginning of this year.
Undoubtedly, President Trumps says he has already won the war while Iranian Leadership say that they are ready to continue this war up to many months despite bearing a massive damage, continuing to chock the Strait of Hormuz since the beginning of this war as they are using this as a war tool what the whole world can’t afford an indefinite stop on trade through this route.
I find that, despite the speedy escalation of this war, which has entered its 20th day, the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada both opted to hold interest rates steady on Wednesday, as did the Bank of Japan on Thursday. Yet they made clear they are on alert, wary that rising energy prices could spark a fresh wave of inflation.
Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem struck a similar note: “If energy prices stay high, we will not let their effects broaden and become persistent inflation,” he said.
Earlier this week, the Reserve Bank of Australia hiked rates to a 10-month high and warned of a “material” risk to inflation from the oil price spike.
Even Brazil’s central bank, with one of the highest rates of all major economies, opted for a cautious 25-basis-point cut to a benchmark 14.75% rate – a smaller cut than initially expected.
On Thursday, both the Swiss National Bank and Sweden’s Riksbank kept policy rates on hold, flagging the uncertainty of how the war will end up impacting the economy.
Next up are the Bank of England and the European Central Bank, due to announce their decisions. Both the precious metals are expected to hold, but market attention will focus on the communication around those decisions.
I anticipate that the rate path will remain bumpy with no clear end in sight to the conflict that could upend global supply chains, jolt financial markets, and hurt corporate sentiment.
On evaluating the fall by both the gold and silver futures on weekly charts, I feel that the silver futures will likely lead this slide, as this slide has turned steeper in March, which could push the gold and silver futures to retest the tested lows (in April 2025) once again in April 2026.
Undoubtedly, this week’s closing level of the gold and silver futures will define the speed of this slide in the rest of March and the first week of April, 2026.
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Disclaimer: Readers are advised to take any position in gold and silver at their own risk, as this analysis is based only on observations.
