Analysis of and futures across multiple timeframes reveals increasing market indecision regarding ongoing Israeli strikes on Iranian oil facilities. These actions have blocked the Gulf of Hormuz and driven crude oil prices to a high of $119.43 yesterday. The resulting global concerns about potential impacts are significant. Meanwhile, President Trump appears to be adopting a more conciliatory stance on the Iran conflict.
On Monday, US President Donald Trump said that he expects the war with Iran to be over “very soon” after dubbing the past 10 days of war, which have wrought devastation on Iran, a “short-term excursion”.
While Trump appeared to say hostilities would soon end, he nevertheless threatened a larger attack on Iran if it continued to block shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, which led to a major spike in oil prices.
He also said that the US and Israel were continuing to target Iran’s drone and missile stocks. “Starting today, we know all of the places they manufacture drones, and they’re being hit one after the other,” he said, adding that the country’s “missile capability” was down to about 10 percent, maybe less.
I observed that the scenario still looks quite indecisive at the end of this war between them, indicating a massive impact on the precious metals prices.
Technical Levels to Watch
GOLD
In a daily chart, gold futures are under significant bearish pressure, below the significant resistance at $5,009.78, despite experiencing a strong reversal yesterday from the tested lows at $5,021.59.
Gold futures are trying to hold immediate support at the 9 EMA ($5,155), which suggests weakness. Hopes for the de-escalation of the war have increased. Following President Trump’s comments, oil futures fell sharply, which may reduce fears of global stagflation.
I find that if the gold futures are likely to find a breakdown below the next support at the 20 EMA ($5,107) in today’s session could confirm continuity of the sell-off, while a breakdown below this significant support could push the futures to test the next support at the 50 EMA ($4,901).
SILVER
In a daily chart, silver futures, despite a steep reversal yesterday, after testing the 50 EMA ($80.240), are facing significant selling pressure at the current levels, where a breakdown below the immediate supports at the 9 EMA ($86) and 20 EMA ($85) could push the futures once again to test the 50 EMA support in today’s session due to surging hopes on de-escalation of the U.S.-Iran war.
Inversely, bullish engulfing ensures an upward move could be there to test the immediate resistance at $91.701, where the bears could load fresh shorts.
Disclaimer: Readers are advised to take any position in gold and silver at their own risk, as this analysis is based only on observations.
