An evaluation of across multiple time frames since last week indicates that elevated uncertainty has influenced the price movements of both precious metals. Despite a gap-up opening, both metals currently fluctuate between war premiums and peace-related risks.
This platform is not for political discussion. However, I must explain the real reason behind how surging inflation arising from geopolitical situations has impacted the global economy and growth, especially due to actions by U.S. President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu.
Gold and silver futures have surged steeply since the start of the year, hitting record peaks. News spread of the abduction of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and his wife. This was followed by an attempt to control Greenland. Finally, the bombing in Iran resulted in the death of the Iranian Supreme Leader.
On Jan.22, 2026, in a historic ceremony in Davos, Switzerland, President Donald Trump formally ratified the Charter of the ‘Board of Peace – establishing it as an official international organisation as its first Chairman, who painted a picture of the U.N. as an outdated, ineffective organization and said he’s worked to end “seven wars” without any help.
But now the question is whether the foundations of his so-called ‘Board of Peace’ are laid on colonialism? While he is constantly moving forward with intentions of ignoring the death of civilians, not only from Iran but also the Americans.
Gold futures experienced a sudden surge last Friday prior to market close, suggesting heightened volatility. This movement coincided with Oman brokering a U.S.-Iran agreement aimed at resolving the nuclear deal. However, a statement from U.S. President Donald Trump introduced renewed uncertainty as both parties prepared to resume discussions in Vienna on Monday.
The Israeli President adopted a provocative stance, making the nuclear deal harder to achieve. This sequence of tensions culminated in the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on Saturday morning.
Tehran initially denied the reports. Iranian state media later confirmed the leader’s passing, which then sent a shockwave through global markets. This confirmation is expected to cause a surge in crude oil prices, inflationary pressure, and stagnant growth for the global economy.
I find that today’s opening with gap-ups in the gold and silver futures looks evident enough to feel the impact of recent geopolitical tension between the U.S. and Iran, which has generated fear of an escalation of this confrontation that was quite near to success after the third round of discussions between American and Iranian diplomats.
I find the gold futures look indecisive after the weekend developments, as gold and silver futures have to find a breakout or breakdown of the key levels, despite the fact that extended volatility is likely to push the gold and silver futures towards a directional move, as both precious metals are caught between war premium and peace risk.
I prefer to remain cautious before creating any position (short/long), before the situation turns calm or grim, to avoid any sudden shift that could trigger a liquidity crunch, at least for the first two sessions of this week, as the technical projections are likely to remain at the back foot.
However, investor optimism is being balanced against the massive power vacuum left in Tehran. Khamenei was the ultimate authority in Iran for decades, and his absence leaves the country’s next move and the region’s stability in question.
Undoubtedly, if the foundation of “Board of Peace” is formed to establish global peace, then he could think of not deviating from the real path of such an organization; otherwise, such geopolitical developments could lead to elevating global economic and growth prospects.
I find that if the ‘Board of Peace’ works on the principles of establishing peace, then only the growing inflationary pressure of the global economy could decline; otherwise, President Trump’s recent activities have opened the doors for others to follow its path of capturing other weak nations.
Disclaimer: Readers are advised to remain cautious before creating any positions in gold and silver, as this analysis is based only on observations.
