Upon evaluating across various timeframes, I observed that both gold and remain entrenched in bearish territory. The ongoing conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran has now entered its seventh day, with regional developments worsening as Iran seeks to degrade air defenses by targeting U.S.-made radars that detect missiles and drones in the Arabian Peninsula.
On the other hand, President Donald Trump has ramped up his campaign against Iran, saying he had no time limits on how long the war could go on, with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth saying it had “only just begun.”
While Israel said it had begun a “broad-scale wave of strikes” against Tehran, according to State media reports, Jomhuri Avenue, a major street in the capital, was hit.
Israel also announced it was targeting Hezbollah. Israel’s prior evacuation order for nearly all of southern Beirut, is believed to house more than half a million people.
I observed that the grim situation in the Middle East has faded the war premium of precious metals, as Iran has choked the ‘Gulf of Hormuz’, resulting in the escalation of global inflation due to crude oil supply disruptions, and that could continue to extend until this war ends.
Undoubtedly, the war with Iran has sent up 20 cents a gallon, or 7% in just a few days, while President Trump said today he is not willing to accept US gas prices rising as a result of the war in Iran: “If they rise, they rise.”
I observed that both the gold and silver futures standstill before a directional move, which might be bearish, as indecisiveness has elevated beyond limits during these seven days, while both futures are trading in narrow ranges in the bearish territory.
Oil prices fell in Asian trade on Friday after five consecutive sessions of gains, but remain on track for a sharp weekly surge as escalating conflict in the Middle East raised concerns over global supply disruptions.
Technical Levels to Watch
GOLD
In a daily chart, gold futures, after opening the day at $5,095.70, tested the day’s high at $5,150.50 and the day’s low at $5,075.29, are trading at $5,126.70, just below the immediate resistance at $5,127.79.
Here, immediate support refers to a price level where buying interest may prevent the price from falling further. A breakdown below this level could push the futures to test the next significant support at the 50 EMA ($4,878.90).
SILVER
In a daily chart, silver futures, after starting the day at $82.950, tested the day’s high at $84.900, and the day’s low at $82.020, are trading below the formations of a ‘Bearish Crossover’. This Bearish Crossover occurs when a short-term moving average crosses below a longer-term moving average, typically signaling potential downward price movement.
In this case, the 9 EMA ($85) is about to pierce the 20 EMA ($84.482). EMA stands for Exponential Moving Average, which gives more weight to recent prices. This indicates a slide to test the immediate support at the 50 EMA ($79.59), as the 50-day Exponential Moving Average is commonly watched as a support level.
Undoubtedly, a breakdown below the 50 EMA could push the futures to test the next support at the 100 EMA ($69.571).
In conclusion, I observed that the news flow up to this weekly closing could continue to influence the movements of the gold and silver futures, while expectations for last-minute selling could be there as the speculated net positions in both could experience sell-offs before the week’s close.
Disclaimer: Readers are advised to take any position in gold and silver futures at their own risk, as this analysis is based only on observations.
