An analysis of since the beginning of this month indicates that prices peaked at $5,435.42 on March 2, 2026. This surge followed the U.S. and Israel’s bombing of Iran on February 28, 2026, and the onset of war focused on Iranian oil. The sharp price reaction reflected the conflict’s stated motives of regime change and halting Iran’s nuclear enrichment.
Undoubtedly, war rhetoric has complicated the situation not only for U.S. President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, but also for the Strait of Hormuz, which has resulted in a sudden surge in oil prices, raising fears of stagflation globally.
The gold futures behaved inversely when this war entered its 18th day, as they had been constantly declining from the recent peak tested on March 2, 2026.
After testing a low at $5,008.26 on Mar.3, 2026, it reversed a little but hung at the immediate resistance ($5,43.92), and despite attempting to test the next resistance at $5,249.82 on Mar.10, 2026, gold futures are sliding at a 50-degree slide, which is about to end today.
I observed several factors that could fuel tonight’s selling in gold futures, including declining oil prices and the anticipated Fed decision.
Federal Reserve officials, convening in a wartime setting that began less than three weeks ago, are expected to hold interest rates steady on Wednesday, but more significantly to outline in a new policy statement and projections how they feel President Donald Trump’s decision to launch an open-ended conflict with Iran has recast the outlook for the U.S. economy, inflation, and monetary policy.
There are no sure bets, and without a clear stopping point to the U.S.-Israeli bombing campaign, economists say the domestic and global impacts hinge on how long the war continues, on the structure of whatever Iranian government emerges at the end of it, and whether oil prices rise further beyond $100 a barrel or recede soon to their pre-war levels below $80.
Undoubtedly, Iran’s war marks the second potentially stagflation shock that Trump has delivered to the Fed’s outlook, with central bankers a year ago also viewing the new administration’s tariff proposals as a blow to both growth and prices.
While the initial impact of the import duties was not as severe as expected, businesses said they were still in the process of passing higher costs along, a fact that already had officials at the Fed’s January 27-28 meeting discussing the possible need for rate hikes instead of cuts. The new policy statement will be closely read for suggestions that Fed policy is now “two-sided,” with the next change in rates potentially a rate increase.
Technical Levels to Watch
In a monthly chart, gold futures are constantly showing weakness since the beginning of this month as the formation of a bearish candle is holding at the significant support at $4,971.68, where a breakdown could accelerate sell-off, and could push the futures to test the next support at $4,854.88.
Undoubtedly, a breakdown below this significant support at $4,854.88 could push the futures to test the next significant support at the 9 EMA ($4,366).
In a weekly chart, gold futures are trying to hold the immediate support at the 9 EMA ($4,964) where a breakdown is possible this week, and a sustainable move below this tonight could push the futures to test the next significant support at the 20 EMA ($4,675) as the bearish formation of “Dark Cloud Cover” is about to complete.
In a daily chart, gold futures are trying to hold the immediate support at $4,971.68, showing extreme weakness due to the formation of a “Bearish Crossover” as the 9 EMA ($5.070) has moved below the 20 EMA ($5,082), above the head.
I anticipate that a breakdown below this immediate support could push the futures to test the next significant support at the 50 EMA ($4,935) tonight.
Disclaimer: Readers are advised to take any position in gold at their own risk, as this analysis is based only on observations.
