On Wednesday, when the U.S.-Iran conflict has reached its 138th day, despite launching fresh strikes on Iran for 90 minutes this morning, as tensions flare over the critical Strait of Hormuz. The strikes followed attacks overnight, which Tehran said killed at least seven military personnel in the southeast of Iran.
US President Donald Trump once again threatened to strike Iran’s power plants, saying that, if Iran does not return to the negotiating table, “next week it gets really bad for them, because next week come the power plants.”
Iran has about 110 gas plants, a small number of which are hybrid, according to data from Open Infra Map, an open-source intelligence tool for researching energy infrastructure, compiled by volunteers.
Undoubtedly, renewed threats by US President Donald Trump to bomb Iranian civilian infrastructure unless Tehran returns to the negotiating table. Global oil prices and US gas prices rose again this morning.
The US military says it has reimposed its naval blockade of ships going to and from Iranian ports. It also said Iran has struck seven commercial ships in the last week, leaving nearly a dozen crew members dead, missing, or injured.
I feel that Trump is stuck in a mess of his own (and Israel’s) making and can’t find a face-saving way out of it, while the Iranians assume they are still in conflict and are therefore trying to maximize their gains and risk overplaying their hand.
Now, the U.S.-Israel war on Iran has deviated from its initial aim to stop Iran’s nuclear enrichment programme to control over the Strait of Hormuz, as Trump said that he would impose a 20% fee on cargoes transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
Undoubtedly, later he abandoned his proposal to impose a 20% fee on cargoes transiting the Strait of Hormuz less than a day after unveiling the plan, although Washington maintained its naval blockade of Iranian shipping and continued military strikes targeting Iran’s ability to disrupt commercial traffic.
U.S. headline producer inflation in June posted its first one-month decrease since August 2025, largely on the back of a slide in prices for final demand energy goods, economic data showed on Wednesday.
The report echoed a similar print for U.S. consumer inflation the previous day. The overall easing of price pressures in June indicated that there could be some breathing room for the Federal Reserve to not immediately hike interest rates. However, the data comes at a complicated time, as the geopolitical risk premium remains a major outlier in terms of affecting inflation.
Sliding oil prices due to an interim peace deal inked between the U.S. and Iran helped ease price pressures in June. But the situation has swiftly changed in July as a ceasefire between the two sides has collapsed and both wrestle for control over the critical Strait of Hormuz, sending spiking once again.
Undoubtedly, Producer Price Index (PPI) measures average changes in prices received by U.S. producers for their goods and services—essentially, it’s a leading indicator of inflationary pressures before they reach consumers. Investors watch it for early clues about future consumer inflation and central bank moves, though it’s generally less market-moving than CPI.
Traders sharply pared expectations for a July rate increase after the softer inflation report, with CME FedWatch showing markets now price a 16.6% chance of a 25-basis-point hike at the Fed’s July 28-29 meeting, down from 41.0% a day earlier.
However, enthusiasm faded after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh reiterated that bringing inflation back to the central bank’s 2% target remains the priority, indicating policymakers remain prepared to tighten policy further if price pressures reaccelerate.
Though, traders look over excited before the PPI data, turned back to green, after finding some buying support at the key support at $4,030, despite surging selling pressure above the yesterday’s closing, look ready to shed gains on announcements of PPI, and a breakdown below this key support will not only confirm the further directional trend, but also keep the futures in bearish territory up to Fed’s July 28-29 meeting.
I conclude that if gold futures find a breakdown below the key support at $4,030 before today’s close, the next target will be at $3,955.93 – a level, tested on June 30, as the selling pressure, keeping the futures on bearish side, despite testing the day’s high in today’s session, from where selling started once again, signalling repetition of June 30th move.
I anticipate that any upward move above the immediate resistance at the 9 EMA ($4,089) will provide a good opportunity to load fresh shorts with a stop-loss at the next resistance at the 20 EMA ($4,139) with a target at $3,972.
