On evaluating the movements of the on a daily chart since June 17, 2026, when the MoU proved only a futile attempt to establish peace, while the gold futures were trading at the same levels as today, when the US-Iran Conflict has reached its 203rd day without any peace deal in sight, gold futures could behave similarly if they fail to defend the 50 EMA ($4,393.79).
Undoubtedly, after testing the psychological level at $4,444, despite attempting a third time on Friday, signalling a surge in bearish pressure at the current levels, which could push the futures even below today’s tested low at $4,372.65, where a close below this will definitely repeat the follow-up moves of June 17, when the gold futures tested a low at $3,977 in the following week.
As I discussed in my previous analysis ( https://www.investing.com/analysis/gold-faces-4444-test-as-iran-conflict-keeps-markets-on-edge-200687936 ), the reason is that a rate hike by the US Federal Reserve mirrors recent decisions by global central banks keen on quelling mounting inflation. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve rolled out its first increase since July 2023, with Chair Kevin Warsh stressing a desire to bring down price gains regardless of upward pressure from energy costs.
Now, after reviewing today’s moves by the gold futures on a 1-Hr. chart, I can feel the extensive selling pressure at current levels ensure that the last four candles could confirm the upcoming jolt in the upcoming week, as the overstretching of the US-Iran conflict generates a scary scenario for the upcoming weeks.
Today, the U.N. panel cites possible U.S. war crimes as Trump again says Iran wants a deal, as there are “reasonable grounds” to believe the U.S. committed war crimes with two strikes in Iran that killed at least 178 civilians, a U.N.-commissioned panel of human rights experts said Thursday.
Iran war’s price tag for the U.S., with the military’s Inspector General estimating the conflict had cost $33.4 billion up to mid-June. The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office said the war could cost roughly $2 billion more per month for as long as it goes on.
On Friday, a U.K. navy agency said a tanker was hit by a projectile in the Strait of Hormuz early Friday, hours after reporting another vessel coming under attack in the vital waterway. Iran claimed to have struck a ship attempting an “illegal crossing” of the strait.
On Thursday, President Trump said that he is poised to make a “big decision” on whether to launch a major assault to “annihilate” the Iranian regime. “It’s a big decision,” Mr. Trump told Axios ahead of a planned meeting with Persian Gulf leaders next week. “Anything could happen with me.”
Undoubtedly, dropped for a second day, as on Thursday U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said a damaged Saudi oil pipeline should be back online again “relatively soon” after being hit by drones.
Meanwhile, gas and diesel prices continue to soar as energy experts warn those costs are likely to climb in the days ahead.
Technical Levels to Watch
On a daily chart, after testing the day’s high at $4,439.60 and the day’s low at $4,372.65, gold futures are trading at $4,393, just trying to defend the key support at the 50 EMA ($4.393). And have formed a “Bearish Hammer.”
Undoubtedly, a close below today’s tested low will keep the trend on the bearish side, attempting to test the next key support at the 200 EMA ($4,296), where a breakdown could test the levels which I have mentioned above.
On a 1-Hr. chart, after making a futile attempt to test the key resistance at $4,444, gold showing continuation of bearish candles after piercing 9 EMA ($4,419), 20 EMA ($4,402), and look ready to pierced the key support at the 200 EMA ($4,385.57), where a breakdown could push the futures to test the next support at the 50 EMA ($4,376) and the 100 EMA ($4,357), as both these EMAs have already pierced the 200 EMA ($4,385.57), raising an alarming situation tonight.
