Recent movements in futures appear closely linked to the direction of prices. Iran’s restriction of the Strait of Hormuz has elevated prices, resulting in significant volatility in crude oil markets.
Rising concerns about stagflation have been a key factor for those involved in the US-Israel conflict with Iran. While President Trump initially aimed to resolve the conflict within a week, Iran has indicated its intention to prolong hostilities, contrary to US and Israeli expectations.
On March 11, 2026, the United Arab Emirates’ mission to the United Nations said Wednesday that the UAE “strongly welcomes” the adoption of a resolution passed by the US Security Council calling for Iran to halt its attacks on Gulf states.
The resolution gained overwhelming support, with the most co-sponsors in Security Council history. This sends a direct message to Iran, according to the UAE mission: “The Security Council is clear: Iran must immediately cease its attacks against our countries.”
The resolution was adopted earlier Wednesday in a 13-0 vote, with China and Russia abstaining.
On March 13, 2026, Reuters reported that a complex tug-of-war inside the White House is driving US President Donald Trump’s shifting statements on the course of the Iran war, as aides debate when and how to declare victory even if the conflict spreads across the Middle East.
Some officials and advisers are warning Trump that surging gasoline prices could carry a political cost from the US-Israeli attacks on Iran, while some hawks are pressing the president to maintain the offensive against the Islamic Republic, according to interviews with a Trump adviser and others close to the deliberations.
The behind-the-scenes manoeuvring underscores the high stakes Trump—who returned to office last year promising to avoid “stupid” military interventions—faces nearly two weeks after plunging the nation into a war that has rattled global financial markets and disrupted the international oil trade.
The jockeying for Trump’s ear is a feature of his presidency, but this time the consequences involve matters of war and peace in one of the world’s most volatile and economically critical regions.
Shifting from the sweeping goals he outlined when launching the war on February 28, Trump in recent days has emphasized that he views the conflict as a limited campaign whose objectives have mostly been met.
But the message remains unclear to many, including the energy markets, which have lurched in both directions in response to Trump’s statements.
Economic advisers and officials, including those from the Treasury Department and the National Economic Council, have warned Trump that an oil shock and rising gasoline prices could quickly erode domestic support for the war, said the adviser and two others close to the deliberations, speaking on the condition of anonymity to disclose internal discussions.
“He is allowing the hawks to believe the campaign continues, wants markets to believe the war might end soon, and his base to believe escalation will be limited,” the Trump adviser said.
Top political aides and economic advisers, whose warnings before the war about the potential economic shock were largely ignored, appear to have played a major role in pushing Trump’s efforts this week to reassure nervous markets and contain rising oil and gas prices.
His public shift to downplaying the war’s impact—describing it as a “short-term excursion”—and his insistence that gas price hikes would be short-lived appeared aimed at calming fears of an open-ended conflict. Some top aides have advised him to work toward a conclusion to the conflict that he can call a triumph, at least militarily, the sources said, even if much of the Iranian leadership survives, along with remnants of a nuclear program that the campaign was meant to target.
Wave after wave of US and Israeli air strikes have killed a number of top Iranian leaders among roughly 2,000 people overall—some as far away as Lebanon—devastated its ballistic missile arsenal, sunk much of its navy, and degraded its ability to support armed proxies across the Middle East.
But the military achievements have been seriously undercut by Iran’s stepped-up attacks on oil tankers and transport facilities in the Gulf, driving up oil prices.
Trump has said he will decide when to end the campaign. He and his aides say they are far ahead of the four- to six-week timeframe Trump initially announced.
The shifting reasons for launching the conflict, which has spilled over into more than half a dozen other countries, have only made it more difficult to predict what comes next.
For their part, Iran’s rulers will claim victory, analysts say, simply for surviving the US-Israeli onslaught, especially after demonstrating their ability to fight back and inflict damage on Israel, the US, and its allies.
Critical to the war’s final trajectory will be the Strait of Hormuz. A fifth of the world’s oil shipments, which normally traverse the narrow waterway, have come to a near standstill. Iran in recent days has struck tankers in Iraqi waters and other ships near the strait, and the new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, has vowed to keep it shut.
If Iran’s stranglehold on the waterway pushes US gasoline prices high enough, that could increase political pressure on Trump to end the military campaign in order to help his Republican Party, which is defending narrow majorities in Congress in November’s midterm elections.
In evaluating the movements of gold and silver futures since February 28, 2029, I observed that despite the start of actual war between the US-Israel and Iran, gold has completely lost its war premium, as the Trump administration has shown some confusion over the war’s trajectory, which appears rooted in the quick US military success in Venezuela.
Gold futures started reacting at the beginning of this year when they tested a low at $4,319 after a steep fall following record peak-testing at $5,642.97 on Dec. 29, 2025.
Since the start of the war, some aides have struggled to convince Trump that the Iran campaign was unlikely to unfold in the same way as the January 3 Venezuela raid that captured President Nicolas Maduro, according to another source familiar with the administration’s thinking.
That operation opened the way for Trump to coerce former Maduro loyalists into giving him considerable sway over the country’s vast oil reserves—without requiring extended US military action.
Iran, by contrast, has proved a much tougher and better-armed foe with an entrenched clerical and security establishment.
Experts have rejected claims by Trump aides that Iran had been within weeks of being able to produce a nuclear weapon, despite the president’s insistence in June that US-Israeli bombing had “obliterated” its nuclear program.
Most of Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium is believed to have been buried by the June strikes, meaning the material potentially could be retrieved and purified to bomb grade. Iran has always denied seeking nuclear weapons.
On the other hand, Israel’s Prime Minister Netanyahu is also facing a similar situation ahead of the October election, as he is losing public support at this critical juncture.
Since Iranian missiles have smashed his so-called “Iron Dome” and damaged a large part of Israel, he has started seeking ways to stop the war. But the problem now is that Iran does not appear willing to stop, as the newly appointed supreme leader looks aggressive enough to continue the conflict. For this reason, he has closed the Strait of Hormuz, resulting in a surge of economic pressure on Israel as well.
I observed that if the war drags on, American casualties mount, and economic costs multiply, some analysts say it could erode backing from Trump’s political base. But despite criticism from some supporters opposed to military interventions, members of his “Make America Great Again” movement have so far largely remained with him on Iran.
Undoubtedly, to exit this unwanted economic pressure, President Trump is expected to present some positive news this weekend to justify easing the US-Israel war with Iran. The main factor boosting President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu was their “Iron Dome” capability, which has proved a complete failure during this war. With growing worries about losing public support before the midterm elections, a compatible way forward is expected to be established as soon as possible. If established successfully, the “Golden Dome” will melt down.
Does it matter who wins this war? The main focus remains on escalating global inflation with elevated prices as the Strait of Hormuz remains choked, while gold futures await further clues on this front. Today’s inflation data is in line with expectations and slightly faster than December’s pace of 3.0%.
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Disclaimer: Readers are advised to take any position in gold at their own risk, as this analysis is based only on observation.
