On Friday, rebounded, oil futures declined sharply, and the reversed nearly all gains accumulated since the onset of the Iran conflict. This shift in sentiment was driven by increasing indications of détente in the Middle East and the temporary reopening of the critical Strait of Hormuz.
The opening of the strait, though temporary, came as a major relief to market participants across asset classes, as the effective closure of the vital waterway had heightened volatility and stress in global markets.
“In line with the ceasefire in Lebanon, the passage for all commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz is declared completely open for the remaining period of the ceasefire,” Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, said on X, a day after Israel and Lebanon agreed to a 10-day ceasefire.
The U.S. and Iran are negotiating a three-page plan to end the war as it approaches the 50-day mark, with discussions centred on the U.S. releasing $20 billion in frozen Iranian funds in exchange for Iran surrendering its stockpile of enriched uranium, according to Axios.
But Trump, later in a phone interview with Bloomberg News, said Iran had agreed to suspend its nuclear program indefinitely and would not receive any frozen funds from the U.S.
Trump on Thursday said U.S. and Iranian negotiators would likely meet this weekend for a second round of talks.
On comparative analysis of the reactionary moves by the gold futures with brent crude oil and U.S. dollar index futures, I observe that these were only reactionary moves in response to the surprise opening of the Strait of Hormuz while a plethora of questions of the fragile deals between the U.S. and Iran where the temporary ceasefire going to end on April 21, 2026 while the major concerns are yet to resolved as the statements issued by the President Trump on opening of Strait on Friday looks only one-sided.
Crucially, a new 10-day halt to hostilities between Israel and Lebanon could remove another key sticking point in negotiations. Despite the U.S.-Iran ceasefire, Israel has continued to carry out strikes on Iran-aligned Hezbollah militants in neighbouring Lebanon. Iran has demanded that such attacks must stop before an accord with the U.S. can be secured.
Both Israeli and Lebanese officials have confirmed the truce, which began at 5 p.m. ET on Thursday, although Hezbollah did not say whether it would accept it and instead said it would base its actions on “how developments unfold.” Israel and Hezbollah exchanged strikes in the hours leading up to the start of the pause in fighting, statements from each military said.
Still, Trump has reiterated his belief that the Iran war should end soon. According to Reuters, U.S. and Iranian negotiators have been scaling back their hopes for a comprehensive deal and are now looking to forge a temporary memorandum that would prevent fighting from flaring up once again.
Meanwhile, a U.S. blockade of Iran that began earlier this week has intensified. U.S. military officials have stressed that the restrictions apply to Iran’s ports and coastline, not the Strait of Hormuz.
The key now is, should the straits stay open, the markets will need to assess the longer-term impact of supply disruptions to oil, gas, and refining capacity against demand trends to determine where energy prices may settle over the next few months, particularly given lower supply estimates following shutdowns during the conflict.
I observed that on Friday, despite a sharp bounce back, reluctance showed by the gold futures to sustain above the significant resistance at $4,888, indicating a gap-down opening awaits on Monday, as Friday’s move might be a result of short-squeezing in response to the opening of the Strait of Hormuz.
Undoubtedly, the markets would prefer to focus on more clarity on a Middle East peace plan and a new regime for the Strait of Hormuz, as Israel’s intention is still in doubt despite a 10-day ceasefire with Lebanon, which seems to be an unstable platform for the U.S.- Iran de-escalation deal, which is full of scepticism as Israel never wants peace between the U.S. and Iran.
Now, the concerns revolve around the global inflation, which has been elevated after the outbreak of the war in late February induced an historic surge in oil prices. I find that it would be a major challenge for the global central banks to determine how they would react to potential price pressures, which could remain a crucial source of debate this year.
And, their action on controlling inflation would define the next directional move of the gold futures, as if the central banks keep the interest rates higher to control inflationary pressure, gold futures could continue to remain under bearish pressure, if they do not hold the key support levels this month.
Technical Levels to Watch
In a monthly chart, after opening the month at $3,698.40, tested a high at $4,912.04, and day’s low at $4,580.40, closed last week at $4,879.60, gold futures are showing extended selling pressure at the current levels, where a breakdown below the immediate support at the 9 EMA ($4,426) could result in monthly closing below the significant support at $4,124.30.
In a weekly chart, after opening last week at $4,710, it tested the week’s high at $4,912.04, and the week’s low at $4,626, and closed the week at $4,879.60, just above the immediate support at the 9 EMA ($4,807).
A gap-down opening next week, below the 9 EMA, could trigger selling to push the futures to pierce the next support at the 20 EMA ($4,671.40) next week. Undoubtedly, a sustainable move below the 20 EMA could push the futures to test the next support at the 50 EMA ($4,168.39), as the gold futures, despite a sharp reversal, couldn’t sustain above the last-to-last week’s high.
In a daily chart, after opening the day at $4,810.90, gold futures tested the day’s high at $4,912.04, and the day’s low at $4,787.85, gold futures are showing weakness, as despite repeated attempts since April 8, 2026, immediate resistance at $4,8888, continue to cap the upside.
Undoubtedly, a breakdown below the significance support at the 20 EMA ($4,782.46) could push the futures to test the next support at the 100 EMA ($4,652), where a breakdown could push the futures to test the next support at the 200 EMA ($4,172) on the daily chart.
In a 1-Hr. char, after sliding from the day’s tested high, the rest of the hourly candle formed a bearish pattern, confirmed by a long bearish candle, formed in the last hours, but closing formed a “Bearish Doji” on 1-Hr. chart, which is likely to trigger a gap-down opening by the gold futures next week.
In conclusion, I find that the ceasefire agreement seems to be changing completely on Saturday, as according to the latest updates from CNN, US President Donald Trump said that the US would obtain Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium one way or another, warning the transfer could come “in a much more unfriendly form” if negotiations fail on Monday.
He earlier said that Iran has “agreed to everything” in talks with the United States, including working jointly to remove enriched uranium from the country and take it to the US.
Undoubtedly, such a shift in President Trump’s stance on Iran could reverse the whole scenario in global markets.
Disclaimer: Readers are advised to take any position in gold futures at their own risk, as this analysis is based only on observations.
