After evaluating the steep single-day fall of approximately 14.19% on January 30, 2026, in follow-up of a fall of approximately 8.26% on Jan.29, 2026, have experienced a total fall of approximately 15.75% in the last two trading sessions of January 2026, while the total fall was of approximately 16.61%.
Gold futures rose to a fresh record at $5,645.74 an ounce last week as lingering economic and geopolitical tensions continued to steer investors toward safe-haven assets.
Undoubtedly, gold futures have already gained approximately 30.42% this year, only in the first 26 days of this year, extending last year’s strong rally, which started on April 7, 2025, after testing the lows at $2,970.76, and surged approximately 89.45% from April 7, 2025, to Jan.29, 2026 (in 297 days).
Gold’s relentless rally has been fuelled by a mix of rising global uncertainty, expectations for lower U.S. interest rates, and steady buying by central banks as part of a broader shift away from the dollar.
The massive runup in precious metals that had taken gold and silver prices to dizzying heights crashed spectacularly on Friday, after President Donald Trump nominated former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh as his pick to replace Chair Jerome Powell, quelling concerns over the central bank’s independence and stabilizing the dollar.
Undoubtedly, gold futures have seen this rally after testing the lows at the end of the 1980 rally, which experienced a surge of approximately.
Following the slide in gold futures, market nerves have intensified as this fall has generated numerous questions – such as whether the slide will continue on Monday, and if it does, what the duration and levels the gold futures could test will be. And, if the gold futures start a reversal after shedding some more gains, which levels will provide resistance and support ahead?
Therefore, to clarify expectations for gold’s movement after a large decline, it is necessary to examine how gold futures performed post-fall. Specifically, let’s compare the behavior of gold futures between November 1979 and January 1980.
After testing the lows at $365 on Nov. 1, 1979, gold futures experienced a steep surge of approximately 188.87% in 82 days, and tested a peak at $873.65 on January 21, 1980, and experience an advent of selling spree which resulted in a steep fall of approximately 30% in seven days – including a few gap-downs up to Jan. 28, 1980.
Undoubtedly, after witnessing a steep slide from the tested peaks, gold futures found some gap-ups up to Feb. 11, 1980, and regain the levels at $743, exactly 50% of the lost territory in that bears’ attack but bears were still in command, again the slide continued from Feb. 11 that pushed the gold futures to test the lows at $492.98 – A fall of 48% from the tested peaks with a 54-degree angle of depression, and this downtrend finally ended on March 27,1980 – a period of 66 days when the gold future experienced that slide.
And, after testing the lows on March 27, 1980, gold futures continued to experience some bounce backs but remain below the levels seen on Feb.11,1980 at $743, and once again on September 23, 1980 before proceeding on a steep slide that kept the futures in bearish territory up to 1983 as this Sept. 23 peak was below the tested peak on January 21, 1980.
Undoubtedly, the movements of the gold futures between Nov. 11, 1979, and Jan. 21, 1980, look quite similar to the movements of the gold futures before testing the Jan. 29, 2026, peak.
Analysing the pattern from August 20, 2025, when gold futures began their recent uptrend from $3,353.34 to the current peak, suggests another potential similarity with 1980. If this pattern repeats, gold futures may experience a continued decline through March, possibly mirroring the scale and duration of the 1980 post-rally downturn.
If the gold futures experience any such fall, gold futures could test the lows near $2,829 before bouncing back in April 2026, as the steep fall seen on Jan. 29 and 30, 2026, raises doubt on the advent of panic selling if the gold futures find a breakdown below the 50% retracement level of this rally, which comes to $4,283.83.
Disclaimer: Readers are advised to remain extremely cautious while taking any position in gold, as this analysis is based only on observations.
