After reviewing the movements of the since the beginning of this month, I anticipate that the gold furthers are persistently sliding since second peak at $5,434 on Mar.2, after post-record peak testing at $5,630.32 on Jan.29, 2026 when the gold futures experienced a heavy sell-off that pushed the futures to test the lows at $4,422.67 within next three trading sessions.
Undoubtedly, such steep slide shocked the gold bugs while the rating agencies were batting for above $6,000 levels, disruption of bullish sentiments while the bulls tried to move upward again from the tested lows after post-record peak testing fall, finally tested another peak on Mar.2, 2026 at $5,434 amid surging geopolitical concerns over the escalation of war by Israel-U.S. and Iran on Feb.28, this year.
Now, President Donald Trump says that he thinks new Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, whose father, the former supreme leader, was killed on the first day of the U.S. and Israel’s war on Iran, is alive but “damaged.”
Khamenei has not been seen by Iranians since his selection on Sunday by a clerical assembly, and his first comments were read out by a television presenter on Thursday.
An Iranian official told Reuters on Wednesday that the newly appointed supreme leader was slightly injured but was continuing to operate, after state television described him as war-wounded.
“I think he probably is (alive), I think he is damaged, but I think he’s probably alive in some form, you know,” Trump said in an interview on Fox News’ “The Brian Kilmeade Show.” His remarks were published by Fox News on Thursday evening.
In Khamenei’s comments, he vowed to keep the Strait of Hormuz shut and called on neighboring countries to close U.S. bases on their territory or risk Iran targeting them.
As the war approached the two-week mark, having killed thousands and shaken financial markets, the leaders of Iran, Israel, and the United States all voiced defiance and vowed to fight on.
I observed that the gold futures are showing deviation from the elevated risk of surging inflation due to a sudden surge in prices as the focus shifts towards the Fed’s meeting next week.
Next week, five central banks are set to meet: the U.S., Europe, Britain, Australia, and Canada, leading to a surge in bets that none will ease, while Australia is expected to go for a hike, and the Bank of Japan has already hiked the interest rates in its last meeting.
Technical Levels to Watch
In a weekly chart, gold futures, after opening the week at $5,186.70, tested the week’s high at $5,248.70, and week’s low at $5,021.20, are trading at $5,092, indicating a tough resistance at $,209.78, while trying to hold above the immediate support at $5,00563 where a week’s closing below this could accelerate the sliding spree.
In a daily chart, gold futures, after opening the day at $5,100.80, tested the day’s high at $5,132.14, and day’s low at $5,087.66, are trading at 5,095, indicating an extensive bearish pressure at the immediate resistance at $5,127.79 while the gold futures are trading below the immediate resistance at the 20 EMA ($5,122.47) has formed a bearish hammer on the daily chart.
In a 1-Hr. chart, gold futures, are trading much below the 9 EMA ($5,105) which has come below the 20 EMA ($5,117.73) and the 50 EMA ($5,141.60), after the formation of a bearish crossover in an hourly chart as the 100 EMA ($5,153.83) along with other EMAs have come below the 200 EMA ($5,160), forming a significant bearish crossover.
I conclude that the markets feared that Iran war will keep oil prices elevated for a prolonged period, driving up inflations across the world and eliciting a more hawkish stance from the major central banks, and such notion could continue to slide the gold and to test fresh lows this month while any step on de-escalation of this war, which is also a possibility to escape the surging fear of stagflation at the global level, could trigger sell-off in gold futures any time.
Disclaimer: Readers are advised to take any position in gold futures at their own risk, as this analysis is based only on observations.
