Upon evaluating the movements of futures since August 20, 2025, when prices were approximately $3,353.65, I observed a distinct uptrend that coincided with increasing concerns regarding the potential impacts of trade tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump. These measures contributed to notable shifts in market confidence and were widely interpreted as assertions of global economic dominance.
Undoubtedly, by imposing uneven trade tariffs, according to his personal choice, on his major trading partners, he continued to deviate from the global economic equations in order to weaken other countries through his trade policies.
Since president Trump joined the office on Jan.20, 2025, he was joined by his favorite Israeli Prime Minister Nitanyahu who was under the impression of surging power of Palatine and Iran since he came in power, He started to convince the U.S. President Donald Trump about his intention to attack Gaza and Tehran to eliminate their powerful regime by propagating the power of his Iron Dome.
Such a scenario generated fear among the global central banks to start buying gold and through an aggressive buying spree to add to their reserves only to escape the recessionary fear since August.20, 2025, resulting in the buying spree continuing till January 29, 2026, despite some sell-offs in between this period.
Undoubtedly, the Central Bank of China led this buying spree to maintain its second position, after the U.S.
But the beginning of this started with the surprising abduction of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and his wife on Jan.2, 2026, by U.S. President Trump to hold control over the Venezuelan oil and rare earth materials, with the excuse to blame the Venezuelan President for drug dealing in the U.S.
After this, he attempted to gain control over Greenland, an excuse of a threat to his country from China, is trying to get hold of control over Greenland, but due to the surging European countries’ agitation over this, he stepped back.
Till now, gold prices had formed a ‘Golden Dome’ as President Trump was on the way to move ahead with establishing his “Board of Peace”, replacing the United Nations, by charging a U.S. $1billion fee for three years for the countries that wish to join this to receive protection from any international threat.
Besides this, President Trump started threatening Iran with dire consequences if they don’t stop their nuclear enrichment program, while he himself had proclaimed in June last year that the US forces had eliminated its nuclear centers while providing backup support to Israel’s attempt to attack and eliminate Iran.
That was the time, when Israel’s claim of having an ‘Iron Dome’ which provides protection against any missile attack, proved a complete failure when Iranian missiles entered its Iron Dome and started destruction, forcing Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu to run U.S. for help.
Now, America’s claim on its ‘Iron Dome’ has also proved merely a myth, after Iran’s missiles destroyed Washington’s consulate in Dubai and a port in the city of Fujairah in the United Arab Emirates, in the Middle East this week.
I find that the future direction of gold prices is closely tied to the inverse correlation between the ‘Golden Dome’ and the Israeli and American ‘Iron Domes’.
Now, the surging inflationary concern is at the forefront, which has boosted the dollar’s strength this week, indicating a shift in money flow from gold to the dollar and other safe havens, and could influence the sentiments of the gold bugs.
The US and Israel have bombed targets across Iran for a fourth day, as President Donald Trump declared that the country’s air defences, air force, navy, and leadership were “gone”.
The Israeli military said it had struck Iran’s presidential office, a covert nuclear compound, and a Revolutionary Guards commander in Tehran, while the US military said it had destroyed command facilities, missile launch sites, and airfields.
Iranian authorities did not comment. But explosions were reported across Iran, where the Red Crescent has said 780 people have been killed since Saturday.
Iran has responded to the strikes by launching deadly missile and drone attacks on Israel and Gulf states hosting US bases.
In a daily chart, gold futures, after a steep fall soon after testing a peak at $5,435.42 on Mar.2, 2026, tested a low at $5,005.63 on March.3, 2026, experienced some pullback before closing at $5,127.79 on Tuesday, indicating mild support for the futures at this level.
On Wednesday, after opening the day at $5,134.05, testing the day’s high at $5,200.16, and day’s low at $5,114.80, gold futures are trading at $5,180.84, just trying to defend the immediate support at the 9 EMA ($5,170.91).
Undoubtedly, at current levels, gold futures are facing extensive bearish pressure that could push the futures below the immediate support at the 20 EMA ($5,093), where a breakdown could accelerate the slide and push the futures below the next support at the 50 EMA ($4,361) this week.
Disclaimer: Readers are advised to take any position in gold at their own risk, as this analysis is based only on observations.
