Gold futures have shown increased sensitivity to statements from U.S. President Donald Trump this year, instead of responding mainly to financial events.
On Sunday, U.S. President Donald Trump told advisers that an initial, more limited strike could be used to pressure Iran into agreeing to abandon its nuclear weapons capability. Potential targets under consideration include facilities linked to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, nuclear infrastructure, and elements of its ballistic missile program.
On Saturday, U.S. President Donald Trump announced that he will increase his new global tariffs to 15%. The president is digging in on his trade war after Friday’s Supreme Court ruling that the duties he issued using sweeping emergency authorities were illegal.
Now, the new levies can take effect for a maximum of 150 days, unless congressional approval is obtained for an extension. Trump has signaled that there will be protracted legal battles over calls to refund companies billions of dollars for the emergency tariffs, as the court has not yet made it clear.
Trump is considering a limited military strike to pressure Tehran into a nuclear deal. Top Democrats urge him to avoid military action without Congress.
On the other hand, having a look at the economic data announced during the last week favors declining expectations for further rate cuts this year, while on Saturday, the release of looks evident enough for exhaustion to continue in during this week.
Undoubtedly, a level of 159.9K indicates that such a position of CFTC gold net speculative positions was seen in May 2025, while the were trading near $3,300 levels.
Technical Levels to watch
On the monthly chart, gold futures show significant selling pressure. After opening the month at $4,816, they reached a high of $5,144.50 and a low of $4,423.20, currently sitting at $5,080.90. This indicates strong bearish activity at current levels, with bears already demonstrating their strength by pushing futures to recent lows.
I observed that the gold futures, since testing a peak at $5,647.15 last month, have experienced a shift in the confidence level of the bulls as the bears have capped the upside at $5,145.10, while a breakdown below the immediate support at $4,666.44 could keep the futures in bearish territory in the coming months.
In a weekly chart, gold futures, after opening the last week at $5,050, after testing the week’s high at $5,131, and week’s low at $4,854.20, have closed the week at $5,80.91, are showing stiff resistance at $5145.10 as, despite repeated attempts to find a breakout, remain unsuccessful.
I observed that gold futures experienced a buying spree from weekly lows last week, but could not sustain above immediate resistance. Conversely, any breakdown below the immediate support at the 9 EMA ($4,789) could push the futures to test the next support at the 20 EMA ($4,468) this week.
In a daily chart, gold futures are facing stiff resistance at $5,145.10 since Feb.4, 2026, and trying to defend the immediate support at the 9 EMA ($5,008.87), where a breakdown could push the futures to test the next support levels at the 20 EMA ($4,956) and 50 EMA ($4,732) this month.
Disclaimer: Readers are advised to take any position in gold at their own risk, as this analysis is based only on observations.
