On June 29, the U.S.-Iran conflict reached its 122nd day. An Axios report said the United States and Iran had agreed to stop fighting over the strategic waterway. The report also said they would restart negotiations in Doha.
During the weekend, U.S. forces conducted additional strikes against Iranian military and surveillance facilities. This followed an attack on a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz and increased pressure on commercial shipping. President Donald Trump stated that Washington could be compelled to “militarily complete the job” if attacks persisted.
Iran responded with missile and drone attacks targeting U.S. military installations in Bahrain and Kuwait, according to reports, while also threatening to suspend negotiations if further U.S. strikes occurred.
The two sides plan to meet on Tuesday in Qatar, according to the Axios report. The latest diplomatic efforts come after a June 17 memorandum of understanding signed by the two countries sought to end several weeks of escalating conflict in the Gulf.
But conflicting statements from both the U.S. and Iran extend the dilemma over the Doha meeting on Tuesday, as US President Trump says a meeting with Iran will be held in Qatar’s capital on Tuesday after Tehran “requested talks” following days of reciprocal attacks that threatened their interim deal.
However, a senior Iranian official says there are no planned meetings with US officials from “technical teams” in Doha this week.
Undoubtedly, rising energy prices in the wake of the Iran war have fuelled inflation concerns, leading central banks, including the , to adopt a more hawkish tone and investors to scale up bets on rate hikes, rather than cuts.
Analysts say that while softer ETF demand could weigh on bullion in the near-term, central bank purchases — another key driver behind ’s rally last year — are likely to remain a key source of support.
On Friday, , after opening the day at $4,029.85, tested the day’s high at $4,069.55 and the day’s low at $3,998.65, and are trading at $4,064.20, trying to defend the immediate support at $4,035.38, where a breakdown could push the futures to test the next support at the low, tested in November 2025.
On Monday, gold futures, after opening the day at $4,076.80, tested the day’s high at $4,090.20 and the day’s low at $4,039.90, and are trading at $4,055, just trying to hold the immediate support at $4,035.38, where a breakdown could push the futures to test the next support at $3,957 on the daily chart.
Technical Levels to Watch
On the daily chart, the current position of gold futures looks extremely bearish, as currently trading much below the 9 EMA ($4,134) and the 20 EMA ($4,2410, and both have pierced the 200 EMA ($4,321), forming a “Bearish Crossover”.
Moreover, the 50 EMA ($4,423) has pierced the 100 EMA ($4,500), forming one more “Bearish Crossover”, ensuring surging bearish pressure.
On the 1 Hr. chart, gold futures are facing significant resistance at the 50 EMA ($4,064.92) and have come below the 9 EMA ($4,060), which is currently below the 50 EMA, while the 20 EMA ($4,056) is about to pierce the 50 EMA, signalling the advent of a selling spree shortly.
I conclude that the last four hourly candles will define the further trend tonight, as gold futures are likely to test the significant support at $3,957, as the expected meeting in Doha on Tuesday is still in doubt due to a surge in uncertainty amid conflicting statements from both sides. For more detailed analysis, you may read my previous analysis Gold Nears a Technical Crossroads as Macro Risks Shift.
