On evaluating the movements of the futures since April 7, 2025, I observed that the rally seen last year, driven by the real drivers, started mushrooming with the disruption of global economic equations due to the imposition of trade tariffs last February.
Undoubtedly, the prevailing fear of disrupting trade equations created panic among the global central banks, and they started aggressive buying hysterically, resulting in the advent of an initial rally after testing the lows at $2,624.51 on Jan. 6, 2025, when U.S. President Donald Trump was about to resume his office on Jan.20, 2025.
I observed that prior to this advent of a sustainable rally, gold futures had already experienced a rally that started on Feb.24, 2024, after testing the lows at $1,987.25 – a level that could look amazingly low from where we are sitting now on Feb. 13, 2026.
The above facts raise a plethora of questions about the reliability of current levels: like is this 2025-run-up, supported by the demand-supply equation or a resultant of hype created by U.S. President among the global central banks by extending uncertainty over the global economic health by imposing trade tariffs according to his personal preference by illegally using emergency economic powers even without any threat to American economy.
People’s Bank of China might be the first case of this artificially created phobia by President Trump, who started a profuse buying spree to add more and more gold to its reserves to maintain its second position in the world.
This buying spree in gold encouraged other global banks to join in, adding more and more gold in their reserves, pushing the gold futures to ramp up till January 29, 2026, when the gold futures tested a record peak at $5,630.88, before falling to test the lows at $4,425.25 on Feb.2, 2026.
Even if we look at the movements of the gold futures during the first term (Jan. 20, 2017 – Jan.17, 2021, of the U.S. President Donald Trump, moves were not equally terrific as during his second term.
There was only one rally was experienced by the gold futures when the gold futures, started to surge after testing the lows at $1,779.70 on Jan.28, 2022, after taking support at the 200 EMA, tested a peak on Mar.8, 2022 at $2079 with an angle of elevation was of 65-degree, (exactly same in recent rallies in 2025) while the angle of depression was of 39-degree when the gold futures continued to slide up to Sept.28, 2022, and tested a low at $1,613.30.
After this, gold futures continued to trade continued to move upward and attempted to test the peak tested in March 2022, once again on May 4, 2023, followed by a sharp sell-off that pushed the futures once again below the significant support at the 200 EMA before resuming the uptrend once again.
This time once again, gold future tried to test March 2022 peak on Dec.4, 2023, followed by a selling spree that pushed the gold futures to sustain in a narrow range, above the significant support at the 200 EMA, till they found a breakout above this Mar. 2022 peak before moving upward after testing a low at $1,987.25 on Feb.14, 2024, and continued to remain in an uptrend before testing a record peak on April 22, 2025 at $3,510.21.
Undoubtedly, this rally was quite sustainable as the angle of elevation was of elevation was of only od 21-degree while the uptrend remains most of the time even below the angle of elevation.
I observed that this rally was based on fundamentals when the investors were quite convinced about the possible outcome if Donald Trump won the presidential election.
Undoubtedly, levels of the gold prices were convincing enough to remain invested in case of any economic jolt, as the gold had the full potential of a safe-haven.
I observed that the rally seen in gold prices in 2023-2024 found acceleration after the advent of extreme uncertainty since April 7, 2025, when President Trump had imposed trade tariffs in Mar. 2025.
Undoubtedly, this rally found a supportive buying spree by the global central banks to beat growing economic uncertainty, even without caring about the accelerated inflation levels during 2025, while the U.S. Federal Reserve provided supportive interest rate cuts despite hawkish voices from the Fed members.
I observed that some investors had recognized the possible advent of economic instability much in advance when President Trump won the Nov. 2024 presidential elections, while the gold futures were trading near $2,624 levels.
Another supportive factor behind this rally was the inflow of money through gold ETFs from common investors, which resulted in growing use of leverage and futures trading to gain exposure to gold to hedge inflation. Finally, the gold futures experienced a breakdown on Oct.20, 2025, when the gold futures fell sharply during the next trading session.
But, till than gold rush has attained its extreme levels that pushed to gold futures to test record peaks between December 2025 to January 2026 when the gold futures tested a record peak at $5,630 on Jan.29, 2026, followed by a meltdown that pushed the futures to test a low at $4,425 on Feb.2, 2026 within two trading sessions, suggests that the recent increase in gold demand is more consistent with a speculative bubble inflating.
While the recent surge in geopolitical confrontations due to Trump’s new experiments started this year with the abduction of the Venezuelan President and his wife on Jan.2, 2026, followed by his claim over Greenland in view of national security threats, and threatening Iran to limit its uranium capacity build-up, will probably contribute to higher volatility in the gold market.
Concerns about Trump’s influence on global price swings have intensified as he is going to chair the US-led “Board of Peace” on Feb.19, 2026, to resolve geopolitical confrontations. And for this, he is even delaying his second round of talks with Iran, as discussed in my previous analysis, silver-technical-formations-support-bearish-build-up-ahead-200674974″>Gold and Silver: Technical Formations Support Bearish Build Up Ahead.
In conclusion, I find that the sustainability of the recent rally by gold and silver futures seems to be in doubt, as the main drivers behind this rally are not in place, as the outflow of money from the gold ETFs has started during the last two months.
