On Wednesday, the US-Iran conflict entered its 124th day. Market participants closely monitored developments in Doha after Iran declined direct talks with senior US envoys who had travelled to the region, stating that any discussions would occur at the technical level through mediators. This development diminished the likelihood of quickly transforming the two-week-old ceasefire into a durable peace agreement.
Undoubtedly, the absence of direct talks has reinforced uncertainty over how quickly Washington and Tehran can resolve outstanding issues under their 60-day negotiating framework, including the future of the Strait of Hormuz.
Four days of Iranian attacks on merchant ships, US reprisals, and Tehran’s follow-on strikes on US bases and Gulf allies risked an escalation into broader fighting and jeopardized global economic relief as oil began to move through the strait. They also appear to have violated the terms of the memorandum of understanding that both sides signed.
Iran was seeking to defend its new seam of leverage — the capacity to manage traffic through a waterway critical to the global economy. Its missile strikes on Gulf states and US assets suggested an attempt to set a new postwar regional strategic paradigm.
Tehran also seemed to be turning a political screw against President Donald Trump and testing how far his patience will stretch as he seeks to preserve what he has characterized as a triumphant deal to end the war.
Washington could not allow Iran to control shipping through the strait. To do so would suggest it was defeated in a war it started. The Islamic Republic would acquire the capacity to take the global economy hostage and to exert political pressure on the US at any moment it chose. In the process, US power in the region, expressed by its capacity to protect allies, would weaken.
Now, this indirect meeting between the US envoys with Iranian delegation in Doha is seen as an attempt to resolve ambiguities in the agreement, which I discussed in my previous analysis Gold Faces Prolonged Bearish Sentiment Amid Fragile Peace Deal and Catch-22 Risks, seemed to leave open its possible monetization of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz by Iran any time in future.
But the cycle of Iranian provocations and US reprisals was a dangerous game. It threatened to acquire its own momentum, with the prestige of the mercurial US president on the line, in a week when he’s trying to appear all-powerful and to make himself the focus of the 250th anniversary celebration of the Declaration of Independence on July 4, 2026.
On Sunday, Trump threatened that if Iran continued “violating” the ceasefire, it “will no longer exist.” Although his supporters might conclude his warning succeeded in forcing Tehran to step back, the Iranians learned not to take his most bellicose rhetoric seriously during the war. And the president agreed to what many critics saw as a capitulation to Iran after arguing that he didn’t want to cause a major economic slump by continuing the conflict.
But Trump is often defined by his inconsistency. In the future, it might be dangerous for Tehran to assume that he will always act in predictable ways or that he’ll shy away from a huge escalation.
Still, behind the latest flare-ups, there was always a strategic rationale that augured against a return to full-scale war. Iran is accruing enormous benefits from the memorandum. The US has moved to waive some sanctions pending a final agreement. And Tehran has begun to ship millions of barrels of its own oil again as it seeks to revive a buckled economy.
An uptick in all maritime traffic through the strait, meanwhile, helped ease global oil prices and brought the promise of cheaper gasoline — an important consideration as an affordability crisis helps to depress Trump’s approval ratings before midterm elections. Average US gasoline prices dipped to $3.87 a gallon on Sunday. This is still 30% higher than before the war, but well below a peak of $4.56 in late May.
Undoubtedly, Trump avoided the temptation to escalate a war that appeared headed for an indecisive conclusion that would harm his reputation.
But the stark differences between the US and Iran over the strait raise fresh questions about his approach. Before the war that Trump launched, the waterway was open. And the showdowns over its state suggest future talks over more complex issues like Iran’s nuclear program will be even more difficult.
Now, the spiralling strains in the Middle East suggest that Trump’s triumphalism in hailing the memorandum of understanding — a 14-point framework to quell fighting and reach a final deal on all issues within 60 days seems to be a premature theme.
Today, evaluation of the movements of on the daily chart signals the influence of surging indecisiveness over the sustainability of the peace deal, as the conflict and its aftermath have raised questions over the administration’s understanding of the political and historical forces driving Iran’s revolutionary government and its habitual hardline negotiating tactics.
Now, I think when it comes to denuclearizing Iran, they will dribble out very small concessions bit by bit, then pull them back, then put them forward, then pull them back to keep the United States at the table.
So, gold futures could remain on a sliding path for a long time, as formations of lower highs and lower lows, signalling a slow slide while the gold futures are already trading below the key support at the 200 EMA ($4,321) since June 5, 2026, while the 9 EMA ($4,110) and the 20 EMA ($4,209) have pierced the 200 EMA, forming a “Bearish Crossover”, and the gold futures are facing stiff resistance below the 9 EMA.
Despite the formation of a “Bullish Doji Star” on daily charts, gold futures are consistently facing selling pressure at the immediate resistance at $4,124.19 and look ready to shed today’s gain before the close.
Undoubtedly, a closing below the key support at $4,035.38 could accelerate the selling spree this week, as the U.S. dollar held near its highest level in over a year against the on Wednesday, while the languished near four-decade lows, keeping traders on high alert for official intervention ahead of a crucial gathering of global central bankers.
The , which tracks the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, rose 0.123% to 101.06 in the early hours of U.S. trade.
