Markets Head Into a High-Stakes Week With Fed, Oil and AI in Focus – What to Watch | Investing.com

• Asian stocks fell on Monday as technology shares came under pressure amid growing calls from leading artificial-intelligence companies to slow the development of advanced models.
• Japan’s fell 1.7%, while South Korea’s dropped 3.3%. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan declined 0.8%.
• European markets were also set to open lower, with futures down 0.5%, futures off 0.4% and futures slipping 0.1%.
• On Wall Street, futures fell 0.5%, while Nasdaq futures dropped 1.1%.
• AI-related stocks tumbled across Asian markets on Monday after prominent industry leaders called for a more measured approach to developing advanced artificial intelligence systems.
• Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei urged companies to slow the pace of AI progress, warning that safety safeguards and measures to address potential misuse must keep up with rapidly advancing capabilities. His position was supported by xAI founder Elon Musk and OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, who also said OpenAI would not pursue an initial public offering this year, citing safety concerns.
• The comments weighed heavily on AI-linked shares. , a major OpenAI investor, fell as much as 13.2% in Tokyo, while memory-chip maker dropped 9.8%. declined 3.7%.
• slipped 1.2% in Taipei. South Korean chipmakers also came under pressure, with down 5.3% and falling 3.7%.
• AI-related stocks have fueled much of the global equity market’s rally since OpenAI launched ChatGPT in 2022. But investor enthusiasm has begun to face growing headwinds, including cyberattacks involving rogue AI systems and mounting public resistance to the construction of large data centres.
• The concerns come as the United States and China are expected to address AI safety during bilateral talks planned for later this month, according to two people familiar with the matter.
• jumped more than 3% to above $100 a barrel after Houthi and Iranian attacks heightened concerns over Gulf supply, compounded by the temporary closure of Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline, which handles exports equivalent to as much as 4% of global oil demand.
• edged lower as oil’s sharp rally revived inflation concerns and strengthened expectations for a potential Federal Reserve rate hike this week, with falling 0.3% to $4,334.31 an ounce after three straight weekly declines.
• The dollar strengthened as investors braced for possible rate hikes from the Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan, while oil prices above $100 a barrel which is driven by the escalating Gulf conflict, strong inflation concerns and unsettled global bond markets. Traders now see an 86% chance of a Fed rate increase this week after August inflation accelerated, with another hike expected later this year.

U.S. stock futures slipped Sunday evening, led by a sharper decline in futures as pressure mounted on AI-related shares. The sector came under renewed scrutiny after prominent artificial-intelligence executives called for a slower pace of model development. Investors were also focused on rising oil prices, Treasury yields, and the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy .

U.S. stocks ended last week lower, with the posting its worst weekly performance since March after falling 1.6%. The S&P 500 declined 0.8%, while the slipped 0.7%, as investors grew increasingly cautious about the market outlook.

Treasury yields also moved higher, although they eased somewhat on Friday. The climbed to 4.97%, its highest level since October 2023, while the rose above 5.35% for the first time since 2007. Markets are largely pricing in a rate increase at the Federal Open Market Committee’s meeting Tuesday and Wednesday, with traders assigning more than an 86% probability to a hike, according to CME’s FedWatch tool.

US Economic data and Earnings Calendar:

The Federal Open Market Committee will meet Tuesday before announcing its interest-rate decision Wednesday afternoon. The meeting follows the release of August employment and inflation data, which caused market volatility as investors assessed what the figures could mean for monetary policy. Expectations for a rate hike strengthened after the labor market showed continued resilience; employers added more jobs than economists had anticipated, while earlier estimates for June and July were revised higher.

In a blog post titled “We Must Pace the Frontier,” Amodei proposed a three-step plan, beginning with Anthropic granting an independent team of third-party evaluators ongoing, employee-like access to review its safety practices and assess the alignment of its models and training systems. Altman said OpenAI supported the idea and planned to adopt a similar approach, while Musk called for greater oversight and peer review among AI companies. Amodei pointed to a recent incident involving AI agents from OpenAI and open-source platform Hugging Face, which allegedly carried out unauthorized cyberattacks and attempted to compromise the system evaluating their performance.

Economic calendar: (week of Sep 14 -18, 2026)

A more detailed calendar is available here.

Key Earnings calendar: (week of Sep 14 – 18, 2026)

A detailed calendar is available here.

Trip.com Group Ltd. () shares could swing by around 5.6% when the company reports earnings after the market closes on Sept. 15, according to options data compiled by Bloomberg. The stock has exceeded its options-implied move in three of the past eight earnings releases. Shares surged 15.7% on Aug. 27, 2025, compared with an implied move of 4.7%, plunged 17.3% on Feb. 24, 2025, versus an expected 5.7% move, and gained 7.5% on Aug. 26, 2024, against an implied move of 5.4%.

Jefferies lowered its price target for General Mills Inc. () to $35 from $36 while maintaining a Hold rating. The stock was recently trading at $37.09, above the new target, although InvestingPro’s estimated fair value of $42.95 suggests potential upside. Jefferies said tracked-channel volumes improved in the first fiscal quarter, declining roughly 2% compared with a 4% drop in the fourth quarter. However, cereal sales continued to weigh on the company’s performance.

Lennar Corp. Class A () shares could move about 5.2% when the homebuilder reports earnings after the market closes on Sept. 16, according to options data compiled by Bloomberg.

Weekly US Indices Probability Map:

• The U.S. weekly market probability map for Sep 14 – 18, 2026 suggests “Busy week ahead: Fed, BoE, and BoJ meetings take center stage as U.S. indices swing between bullish, mixed, and bearish sessions.”.
• Sentiment readings are derived from a historical data-based scoring system, including geopolitical risk.

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Ali Merchant is a seasoned financial market professional with expertise in Technical Analysis, Treasury & Capital Markets, Trading, Sales, Research, Training, & Fund Management. He is the founder of www.twtlearning.com providing financial education, research and advisory services to fund & hedge fund managers and family offices. He has traded FX, FX options, US stocks & options, Indices, commodities and oil, and Metals Futures. He has a CMT charter, an AAPTA membership, and a CMT Canada membership. He has worked in various roles and organizations in North America and the GCC, such as ABN Amro bank, Thomson Reuters, Refinitiv, MAK Allen & Day Capital Partners, and Bridge Information Systems. He is regarded as an excellent mentor and has trained more than 2000+ users in North America, Gulf countries & Asia on financial markets & products, active and passive trading, and technical analysis strategies. He emanated technical analysis daily and weekly reports for BridgeNews Chicago bureau and updated technical analysis reports on Bloomberg and Reuters while working with ABN Amro bank treasury & capital markets. Has moderated and produced technical analysis reports for Thomson Reuters (Refinitiv) users’ chat rooms and trained users on technical analysis techniques and models. Conducted TA & Global Markets outlook workshop with central banks, sovereign funds, global & regional banks & family offices.