Upon evaluating the movements of futures on different time chart patterns since the last week of December 2025, I anticipate that the natural gas futures are currently holding at a pivotal point, with cold risks into mid-February looking evident enough to limit the upside.
Undoubtedly, US and European officials are worried as hundreds of millions of dollars in U.S. energy assistance promised to Ukraine remain unreleased, even as a bone-chilling winter pushes the nation’s war-damaged power grid to the brink.
On the other hand, restricted natural gas supplies to power plants have also been a major factor in causing generator outages and boosting spot prices (the current prices at which natural gas is bought and sold for immediate delivery) in the U.S. markets, according to PJM, which manages the flow of electricity for 67 million people in 13 Midwest and Mid-Atlantic states and Washington D.C.
Moreover, despite the news of a quick rebound in Lower 48 production, the price action suggests that traders eye the demand side of the demand side.
While the natgaswheather.com reports indicate that the frigid temperatures will continue through the weekend across much of the Midwest and eastern half of the US, with lows of -20s to 20s, highs of 0s to 30s, including lows of 10s to 30s into Texas, the South, and Southeast, from Friday to Sunday. It will be mild over the West with highs of 40s-70s. Milder temperatures gain ground next week. Overall national demand will be very high through the weekend, then ease next week.
Although the February futures contract went off the board on January 28 at a huge premium to March contract, the latter continued to find support at the significant support at the 200 EMA ($3.783) on January 29, followed by a bumpy move by the natural gas futures on January 30 to hit a high at $4.414 an attempt to pierce the 50 EMA ($4.251) but Monday’s gap-down opening has dumped the futures even below the 200 EMA ($3.783) indicating extreme selling pressure at the current levels, natural gas futures are trying to hold above the immediate support at $3.164.
Undoubtedly, natural gas futures are experiencing extreme indecisiveness as in a 1-Hr. chart, formation of multiple bearish crossovers as the 9 EMA, 20 EMA, 50 EMA along with 100 EMA have come below the 200 EMA while the natural gas futures are trading even below the 9 EMA ($3.742) where I find that despite in the bearish territory natural gas futures could experience a strong bounce from here to sustain above the 200 EMA in today’s session as the strong buying could follow at this level if the natural gas futures sustain at the immediate support at $3.614.
Disclaimer: Act thoughtfully and apply careful risk management in any natural gas futures positions. Use these observations proactively in your decision-making; stay informed, monitor market signals, and take decisive action aligned with your risk tolerance, as your success depends on active engagement.
