futures on the Nymex had a bullish week before closing 22% higher than the previous one at $4.41. EIA reported another bearish nonetheless, draw for the week ended January 23 of 242 Bcf in working underground stocks. Total inventory is currently at 2,823 Bcf, 7.9% higher y/y, 5.3% above the 5-year average. Both percentages have been steadily ascending during this withdrawal season.
Because of the blizzard in most parts of the Lower 48, the market is offering us another selling opportunity from higher ranges. We did not want to sell anything below the recent $3.50 level. We had anticipated this last winter spike, and we now have another gift with the double-peak winter season.
The same ranges will give multiple times the profit while we sell any rally that keeps coming our way, on exhaustion, as the downtrend continues. We need to proceed on momentum on near-term charts so we keep a close eye on the next Daily MACD bearish crossing. This might take another few weeks. The latest developments have also made the shoulder season’s Put options attractive again.
In conditions where several European countries manage to have very cheap electricity in the middle of winter, Spain is at 12 EUR/Mwh, some American producers are trying to convince us that gas must be expensive… I don’t want to comment on the same things again.
American natural gas is receiving unprecedented discredit from its own government, which is acting once more as its last remaining salesman on earth. There is no reason for such embarrassment. The price should drop immediately. Too many market participants know it already. The recent 1999 lows at $1.65 in some hubs must not offer too much of a speculative desire.
Some industries produce cufflinks and socks; some others make the light come on. US macro data and the dollar against majors have to be monitored routinely. Daily, 4hour, 15min MACD and RSI are pointing to entry areas.
